One-third (33 per cent) of B.C. residents say that rising food and gas prices have had a significant impact on their budget, according to the latest quarterly RBC Canadian Consumer Outlook Index (RBC CCO). In addition, more than half (53 per cent) of British Columbians say they have delayed a major purchase because of the current economic climate.

Confidence in the economy, however, is rising on Canada’s west coast. B.C.’s overall economic outlook index has moved up nine points to reach 98, its highest level this year. Coupled with this rosy outlook, nearly half (49 per cent) of B.C. residents believe they are managing their debt well, the highest ranking in the country and well above the national average of 38 per cent.

“B.C. residents are confident in the job market and believe the economy will continue to improve,” said Graham MacLachlan, regional president, British Columbia, RBC. “However, rising day-to-day costs of gas and food are starting to have an impact, so it’s good to see British Columbians making debt management a top priority. We continue to stress the importance of meeting with a financial advisor, who can help you refine your budget and financial plan, to ensure there is always room to adjust for everyday financial pressures.”

According to the most recent Economic Outlook by RBC Economics, the B.C. economy will grow at a rate of 2.9 per cent this year. “B.C. will continue to benefit from improved market conditions for most commodities produced in the province, as well as from growing demand from China,” said Craig Wright, senior vice-president and chief economist, RBC. “Expanding trade ties with fast-growing China and the further strengthening in the U.S. economy will help the B.C. economy set a slightly faster pace of growth of 3.2 per cent in 2012.”

The RBC CCO is Canada’s most comprehensive consumer assessment of the economy, personal financial situation and economic and purchasing expectations. Other provincial highlights from the March 2011 RBC CCO include:

• Economic Outlook: More than six-in-ten (63 per cent) of B.C.’s residents rate the current Canadian economy as good, two points higher than the national average; nearly half (46 per cent) believe the economy will continue to improve over the next year, compared to 42 per cent nationally. Job anxiety has dipped to 17 per cent, just one point higher than Saskatchewan and Manitoba who have the lowest job anxiety in the country at 16 per cent.
• Interest rates: The vast majority (80 per cent) of B.C. residents believe that interest rates will rise this year, compared to the national average of 74 per cent. To combat this expected interest rate increase, 31 per cent of British Columbians plan to find ways to reduce their interest costs or monthly payments, 28 per cent plan to increase their savings and/or investments and 43 per cent intend to spend less in other areas.
• Personal Financial Situation Outlook: While more British Columbians feel that, over the last quarter, their personal situation has worsened (32 per cent) rather than improved (23 per cent), more than a third (36 per cent) expect it to improve over the next year.

The Bank of Canada boosted its growth forecast Tuesday but threw a curve ball at Bay Street expectations for a July interest-rate hike by warning the “persistent strength” in the loonie could cause even greater headwinds for the economy.

While some analysts still expect the central bank to start raising rates in July after leaving them unchanged on Tuesday at 1%, others said the statement indicated the bank is in no hurry and could wait until the fall at the earliest.

“It will be difficult to pin down when the next hike will be when you have a central bank that takes the currency into account when making its policy decision,” said Avery Shenfeld, Chief Economist at CIBC World Markets. “And we have a currency that’s volatile right now.”

Shenfeld said the central bank would prefer a “softer currency” before it opts to raise rates again. He added that could unfold in July if commodity prices take a breather.

Click here for the full Financial Post article.

As rising home prices continue to outpace income growth, many young Canadians have decided to delay home ownership for another year, according to a poll released Thursday by Royal Bank of Canada.

RBC’s annual home ownership poll found that 55 per cent of respondents aged 18 to 34 said it made sense to delay a home purchase until next year. That’s 10 percentage points more than the national average for all age groups.

Meanwhile, about half of the young people in the survey who had already delved into home ownership said their mortgage was eating up too much income — suggesting their peers may have good reason to wait.

A sharp rebound in housing market activity as Canada emerged from a recession in late 2009 and early 2010 has sent home prices soaring.

The national average home price rose 8.8 per cent year over year to a record $365,192 in February, although it was skewed upward by sales in the red hot Vancouver market where the average home price was $790,380.

Meanwhile, Canada’s job market has taken longer to recover and income levels haven’t grown at the same rate. A Bank of Montreal report released last month found average resale home prices compared with personal incomes are 14 per cent above the long-term trend.

That makes it more difficult to afford a home — as mortgage payments eat into a larger portion of Canadians’ paycheques — especially those of young people who are just settling into careers and tend to have less money saved.

In addition, young people already struggling with student loan payments may be influenced by a steady stream of warnings over the past year about Canadian debt-to-income ratios reaching record highs, suggested Bernice Dunsby, RBC’s director of client acquisition for home equity.

“Canadians are heeding some of the advice around larger debt levels and stretching themselves too thin so they’re actually taking the time to pause and reflect and plan accordingly, especially when it comes to things like their down payment,” Dunsby said.

Some young people watching home prices soar beyond pre-recession levels may be waiting for a widely predicted drop anticipated over the next year or so, said David Madani, Canada economist at Capital Economics.

“We’ve kind of reached a threshold in the sense that affordability is pretty tough,” he said.

“If you’re talking about a potential young home buyer who is living in Toronto or Vancouver or some other big market, it’s really pricey to get into right now, so that’s discouraging for some young home buyers.”

First-time buyers account for a huge portion of all Canadian housing sales, making the demographic influential in determining the health of the country’s housing market.

This year’s survey, conducted by Ipsos Reid in mid-January, came at a cooling off period in the Canadian housing market following a spate of frenzied buying in the early months of last year.

There will be a drop in demand this year after a number of factors last year combined to drive buyers to jump into the market earlier than planned, Dunsby said.

Many first-time buyers rushed into the market in the first half of 2010 while the Bank of Canada’s key interest rate — which influences commercial lending rates — was set at emergency lows of 0.25 per cent because of the recession.

Those changes affect a minority of mortgage holders who opt for variable rate mortgages linked to the commercial banks’ prime rates.

“(However) they may look at interest rates as an indicator of when to jump into the market,” said Dunsby.

Some buyers also wanted to enter the market before the new harmonized sales tax was implemented last July in Ontario and British Columbia, two of the country’s largest real-estate markets.

Although the HST only applied to some services associated with a home purchase, such as lawyers’ fees, some buyers thought it could push closing costs up a lot more.

First-time homebuyers are also most affected by government moves to change mortgage rules that made it more difficult to qualify for a mortgage. Stricter lending rules brought in the spring of 2010 require all homebuyers to qualify for a standard five-year, fixed-rate mortgage.

More recently, new changes enacted last month shortened the maximum amortization period for a mortgage to 30 years from 35, increasing the size of monthly mortgage payments.

Demand for homes began to wane last spring in the face of rising home prices and short-term mortgage rates, along with stricter mortgage rules and the exhaustion of pent-up demand from the recession.

That has put buyers and sellers on a more even footing when they negotiate.

“In a more balanced housing market, it makes sense that younger and first-time homebuyers are waiting to assess all of their options and do their research before buying a home,” Dunsby said.

“It’s also important to get expert advice on what you can afford and leave yourself with a little extra wiggle room in your budget so you don’t become house poor, as home maintenance and lifestyle costs can add up.”

While 43 per cent of younger Canadians told Ipsos Reid they were paying off their mortgage faster than expected, two-thirds, or 66 per cent, said their mortgages were still larger than they would like.

Rising real estate prices, along with having a large enough down payment, were the biggest concerns among young people surveyed.

Still, 43 per cent of the young adults who responded to the survey said they were looking to buy in the next two years, suggesting the housing market will continue to be healthy going forward.

That’s higher than the national average of 29 per cent for all age groups.

In comparison, only 29 per cent of Canadians aged 35 to 54 said they want to buy within two years and only 17 per cent of respondents over 55 were looking.

The survey also revealed that young people have different ideas about how to seek advice on home ownership than those belonging to older generations.

Most young people said they were more inclined to use websites, family or friends for advice while more than 70 per cent of Canadians over 45 said they would rely on a real estate agent.

The survey’s findings are based on responses from an online panel of 2,103 Canadians, conducted Jan. 12 to 17. A survey of this size has a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points 19 times out of 20 http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/More-half-young-adults-capress-3474012092.html?x=0

A leading international think-tank says Canada will lead its peers in the G7 in economic growth during the first half of this year. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development says the outlook for economic growth has brightened for all G7 countries, with the exception of Japan .

But the improvement has been most marked in Canada and to a lesser extent the United States.

“The outlook for growth today looks significantly better than it looked a few months back,” OECD chief economist Pier Carlo Padoan said in a statement.

“Growth perspectives are higher all across the OECD area, and the recovery is becoming self-sustained, which means there will be less need for fiscal or monetary policy support.”

Canada is now expected to grow by 5.2 per cent in the first quarter of 2011, and 3.8 per cent in the current second quarter.

Much of that growth has come from the resources sector in Western Canada and continued strength in the housing market in most parts of the country.

Germany is the next strongest economy, with growth rates of 3.7 and 2.3 per cent in the two quarters.

Overall, the Paris-based organization says the G7 economies excluding Japan are set to grow at an annual rate of about three per cent in the first half of 2011, well above the organization’s previous forecast.

The growth estimates given by the OECD are the middle of a range, meaning the rates could be slightly lower or higher.

The new forecasts exclude Japan because of the uncertainty over the full cost of damage from last month’s earthquake, tsunami and nuclear disaster.

The Canadian economy began the year with an impressive 0.5 per cent expansion in January that has set the stage for the strongest quarter in a year, according to Statistics Canada.

The performance was in line with market projections, but still was a mild surprise because many economists had worried of a possible payback after December’s equally robust 0.5 per cent gain in gross domestic product.

The strong back-to-back months put the economy on pace to grow by as much as 4.5 per cent in the first three months of the year, analysts have said. That’s two whole points more than the Bank of Canada’s now-dated estimate. At that growth rate, the pace of job creation should be high enough to continue pushing down the national unemployment rate, currently 7.8 per cent.

In the last year, the Canadian economy has created 322,000 jobs and has rebounded nicely from the 2008-2009 recession that battered the country’s manufacturing sector.

In some sectors of the economy, price pressures have been building, raising the prospect of higher interest rates down the road to fight inflationary pressures.

The next scheduled announcement on interest rates from the Bank of Canada is April 12, although the central bank isn’t expected to change its policy rate at that time from the current one per cent. Another announcement is scheduled for May 31, after the federal election.

Most economists believe Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney will leave a hike on the sidelines until July http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/Canada-middle-growth-spurt-capress-340380811.html?x=0

Concerns over rising oil and food prices and persistent strength in the loonie are taking away some of the swagger in Canada’s business community, the Bank of Canada says.

The central bank said Monday its new spring business outlook survey shows firms remain bullish about the future, but less so than three months ago.

Firms have lowered their sights across a range of indicators including more moderate expectations for the pace of sales growth, hiring and investment over the next 12 months.

“Businesses remain positive about the economic outlook, although some forward-looking indicators have eased from the levels recorded in recent surveys,” the bank said.

“Some firms … cited the negative implications of high prices for energy and food on household spending as a factor dampening sales expectations. A number of firms (also) voiced concerns about the impact of the high Canadian dollar and strong foreign competition.”

Overall, the bank said the survey results show the economic recovery in Canada is advancing and more firms — particularly in the Prairies — are operating near capacity.

The optimism tended to be highest among commodity-related industries.

The Bank of Canada uses the findings in its deliberations over interest rate policy, but nothing in the current report suggests governor Mark Carney is primed to hike rates on April 12, the next opportunity, analysts said.

Most economists continue to believe Carney will leave a hike on the sidelines until July.

Bank of Montreal economist Michael Gregory noted that the survey was conducted between Feb. 14 and March 10, after a strong economic advance in January, but before the earthquake and tsunami hit Japan and before Libya exploded into a full-fledged civil war.

“Expectations might have slipped a bit since then,” he said. “However, this does not belie the fact that Canadian firms remain upbeat about their prospects, particularly those in the Prairies or in the commodities sector.”

“The survey results are consistent with Bank of Canada policy tightening over time, but not imminently,” he added. Half the firms surveyed said they expected to add staff in the next year, as opposed to only 13 per cent that intend to downsize. That’s a balance of opinion in favour of additional hiring of 37 percentage points, slightly lower than three months ago.

By a balance of opinion of 13 percentage points, more firms than not said they expected their sales volume to increase at a greater rate in the next year.

As well, more firms than not expect to invest more in machinery and equipment than they did a year ago, by a factor of 24 percentage points.

The firms cited concerns that input costs are rising, although they are less confident they will be able to pass on those higher costs to customers, partly because of strong foreign competition.

Firms said inflation is increasing, driven by higher food and energy prices, but a majority still expect prices to remain within the central bank’s control range of between one and three per cent over the next two years.

In a separate survey, Canadian senior loan officers report that credit conditions continue to ease for firms on both price and non-price aspects. http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/Canadian-firms-still-bullish-capress-680547394.html?x=0

Several of Canada’s big banks are raising most of their fixed-term mortgage rates ahead of the busy spring real estate market.

TD Canada Trust (TSX:TD) TD said the biggest increases will be for mortgages with terms of five to 10 years, which will all go up by 0.35 percentage points starting Tuesday.

The move was matched by CIBC (TSX:CM).

The Royal Bank (TSX:RY) raised its rates on mortgages for five and 10-year terms by 0.35 percentage points and its seven-year rate by 0.15 percentage points. The posted rate for five-year closed mortgages — one of the most popular types of loans for Canadian home owners — will rise to 5.69 per cent.

Scotiabank (TSX:BNS) raised its posted rate for a five-year closed mortgage by 0.4 percentage points to bring it to 5.69 per cent.

Fixed mortgage rates, which are closely tied to the bond market, tend to climb when traders shift investment activity to riskier equity assets from bonds, which are considered safer.http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/Canada-big-banks-raising-capress-671069751.html?x=0 

When Sean Fitzgibbons needed a short-term loan last year to cover his daughter’s first year of university, his wife’s master’s degree and a bathroom renovation, the real estate industry veteran knew exactly what to do.

Mr. Fitzgibbons took out a bank-structured home equity line of credit, or HELOC, a form of financing that’s zoomed in popularity in the last decade.

“We wanted to protect ourselves, to make sure we had good cash flow, and we knew based on experience that an option would be to dip into equity in our home,” says Mr. Fitzgibbons, a former real estate agent who runs the Toronto office of Multivista Construction Documentation Inc., which photographs home renovation and commercial construction sites.

But is a HELOC the right option for this borrower, and for thousands of Canadians who have turned it into one of the trendiest instruments of personal finance?

The volume of HELOCs has ballooned by up to 170% in 10 years, nearly double the speed of mortgage debt, according to the Bank of Canada.

Critics say HELOCs, which account for 12% of overall household debt, make it easier for Canadians to borrow too heavily against their homes. They’re non-amortizing, so borrowers can opt to pay interest on whatever is drawn down, not the principal, which arguably imposes less discipline than a mortgage with fixed repayment terms for interest and principal.

And since a HELOC is almost always a variable interest rate product pegged to the Bank of Canada’s prime, if interest rates rise too quickly, a borrower might not be able to keep pace.

The government recently tightened mortgage rules: changes that took effect March 18 allow borrowers to secure up to 85% of their home’s assessed value through a refinancing, down from 90% previously (HELOCs are only available to a maximum of 80% loanto-value). Loans may be made on a 30-year amortization -or repayment -schedule, instead of 35 years. And effective April 18, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation will no longer offer mortgage insurance for non-amortizing loans such as HELOCs.

But the mortgage industry says HELOCs aren’t proven to be the culprit behind rising consumer debt. And if used judiciously, they’re a low-cost financing option for Canadians who might otherwise rack up expensive credit card debt to cover urgent needs.

“The biggest downside is definitely the temptation to use the money because it’s there,” says Marcel Ghazouli, a mortgage broker with Premiere Mortgage Centre of Mississauga, Ont. “The advantage is, it’s money there when you need it.”

HELOCs provide revolving credit: once approved, they can be continually repaid, without penalty, and the credit drawn down again and again.

There’s no obligation to re-qualify for assistance, for example, following a sudden drop in the family’s income, since the loan is secured against the home.

Canadians typically play it safe with such financing, says Jim Murphy, president and chief executive of the Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals.

A study by his association last fall revealed one in five Canadians withdrew equity from their home in 2010, averaging $46,000 per borrower; of those, 45% used the money to consolidate and repay higher-interest debt, 43% made home improvements, and 19% paid for education.

According to Mr. Murphy, it’s “too early to say” if the federal rule changes will dampen enthusiasm for HELOCs.

“The basic result is you can borrow less on your home than you could have,” he concludes, “but you can still borrow a lot on the value of your home.”

Repaying fully within two to five years should be the goal, Mr. Ghazouli says.

HELOCs are especially useful for funding renovations to improve a home’s resale value – better still, if the home is to be listed for sale soon afterward, and proceeds will be used to pay off the loan, he says.

Taking advantage of the current real estate market in Toronto, Mr. Fitzgibbons was able to maximize the amount of his credit line at historically low interest rates.

Similar to selecting a contractor, he put several mortgage companies through the paces, getting references and ultimately choosing a reputable broker to guide him through the array of HELOC products on offer.

“People will go into a bank and say, ‘I need a line of credit or a credit card,’ the bank will say OK,” Mr. Fitzgibbons says.

“But if you’ve done your homework and know what to ask for, and you have a broker who’s on it every day, you’ll get better advice.” http://www.nationalpost.com/news/Consumers+turning+home+equityloans/4525578/story.html

After sifting through Finance Minister Jim Flaherty’s latest keep-the-opposition-from-voting-us-out budget, I’m sorely tempted to adopt the analytical approach of Carl Weinberg, the estimable chief economy watcher for High Frequency Economics in Valhalla, NY. 

The budget does not merit analysis, because there’s going to be an election anyway, he told clients long before Flaherty tabled the document on Tuesday. “[W]e see no reason to invest a lot of time worrying about the economic impact of today’s budget. We doubt it will be implemented.” 

But that’s precisely why this exceedingly modest and deliberately cautious budget is important. 

Flaherty plainly crafted it with two potential outcomes in mind: Either it would offer just enough to keep the New Democrats onside and prolong the life of the minority government or it would provide the key fiscal plank for the Conservatives’ next election campaign. Given the instant and entirely predictable thumbs down from NDP and the other opposition parties, it’s a safe bet that we’re looking not at the next budget but the economic underpinnings of the Conservatives’ election platform. 

Click here for the full Globe and Mail article

Cheryl Hutton and Aaron Coates always thought getting a mortgage would be a challenge. But within 18 days of visiting a mortgage broker, they were able to close a deal on a new townhouse in Calgary without a hitch.

Now in their early thirties, both have careers in the theatre, something Ms. Hutton says has been a bit of a sticking point with banks. “In our industry we never fit the paperwork guidelines ‘for the banks.’ For some reason, people don’t think we pay our bills.”

Although it was their first home purchase, Ms. Hutton says it was surprising how easy the whole process was once they had someone who could walk them through it. “He sat us down, told us what our options were, showed us that it was possible and explained all the steps we needed to take. If it wasn’t for him, we may not have made the leap.”

Sorting through a mortgage process and negotiating rates can be overwhelming for first-time and seasoned home buyers alike. That’s why people such as Ms. Hutton and Mr. Coates turn to brokers to do the legwork for them.

Yet mortgage brokers will tell you that a good portion of home buyers out there don’t really understand what they do. “Part of the challenge we have in our world is that people aren’t really sure what a mortgage broker is,” says Gary Siegle, regional manager for Invis Inc., a mortgage brokerage firm in Calgary.

Brokers should not be confused with “rovers,” mortgage specialists attached to a specific financial institution who visit customers outside of banking hours, Mr. Siegle explains.

“They only deal with that bank’s product. A broker, however, is an intermediary whose job is to make a match between a lender and a borrower. We represent the individual, not the bank.”

About 30% of mortgages in Canada are done through a broker, according to Perry Quinton, vice-president, marketing, for Investor Education Fund, a Toronto-based non-profit financial information service.

“The reason more people don’t know about them is because the banks are so visible. It’s easy to gravitate to them when you have your savings accounts, credit cards and investments there already,” Ms. Quinton says.

Going for the comfort factor could cost you however, she adds. “A broker has access to different lenders including banks, and can shop rates and features. A half per-cent may not sound like much but that could make a difference of about $20,000 for a $250,000 mortgage amortized over 25 years. Any little bit helps.”

Mr. Siegle confirms that shopping around can deliver significant savings.

“Let’s take today’s average posted rate of 5.44%, and you get a point off that at your bank. So you think you just got a really great deal. But the vast majority of rates we deal with as brokers would be another 30 basis points lower -around 4.14%. And if you look at preferred deals that don’t offer features such as prepayment privileges, it can get as low as 3.89%. That’s another 25 basis points below what’s generally available.”

The reason for that is simple, he says. “We offer wholesale rates, banks offer retail.”

For anyone considering a broker, Ms. Quinton advises people to do a bit of groundwork first if they have the time.

“It helps to educate yourself about options and what you can afford. Look at all your living expenses, including student loans and credit card debt. Chances are you are understating those.”

Another thing to look into is the different types of available mortgages and features, including interest rates, payment frequency, amortization, cash-back programs and the ability to make lump sum payments.

“Knowing these things before you go in can save you a lot of money,” she adds.

Any mortgage broker you choose should always meet the right licensing and education requirements, so be sure to check their registration.

If you’re not completely prepared, however, that shouldn’t be a concern when working with a good mortgage broker, Mr. Siegle says.

“After all, mortgages are pretty much all we do. So even if you come in cold, good brokers will walk you through the process and ask all sorts of questions,” Mr. Siegle notes.

“You just need to be prepared to answer them openly and honestly so they can get you the best deal possible.”

Recent tragic events in Japan follow a string of global catastrophes that could slow economic recovery in the short term, but should not push either the Canadian or global economies back into recession, according to some of Canada’s top economists.

“Obviously horrible things have happened (in Japan) that will take some of the growth out of the economy for the next two quarters,” said Glen Hodgson, chief economist at the Conference Board of Canada.

“Then people need to rebuild infrastructure, rail and housing and that will actually improve growth in the next four to six quarters.”

Hodgson joined two major banks Thursday in projecting that the crisis at Japan’s Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear plant and last week’s earthquake and tsunami will conspire with a number of other global events — including uprisings in the Middle East and Europe’s sovereign debt crisis — to decelerate the global economic recovery.

“They will have a negative impact … (but) we’re certainly not returning to recession in any place,” Hodgson said.

G7 countries, including Canada were set to meet in a teleconference Thursday night to discuss the economic impact of the disasters in Japan.

Bank of Montreal (TSX:BMO) economists said in a report that they had trimmed their forecast for global growth by a quarter point to 3.75 per cent as a result of recent events.

“Prior to Japan’s earthquake, we had been calling for global GDP growth this year of four per cent,” they wrote.

“Until we see how the (Japanese) nuclear crisis plays out, it’s next to impossible to properly assess the full economic impact, but a rough guess would be that events in Japan could cut this year’s GDP growth by nearly a percentage point.”

As a result, the bank doesn’t expect an increase in the Bank of Canada’s key overnight lending rate until at least this summer.

However, the effect on the Canadian economy will be minimal and short-lived as Canada stands to benefit from higher oil prices and Japan’s rebuilding process, Paul Taylor, chief investment officer at BMO Harris Private Banking, said during a conference call Thursday.

There will be a short-term impact on the financial sector— where Canadian insurer Manulife (TSX:MFC) has taken a beating due to its exposure in Japan — as well as uranium producers, as governments around the world begins to rethink the use of nuclear energy.

However, many Canadian businesses, including lumber producers and engineering and construction firms, will see an increase in business during the rebuilding phase, he added.

“The Canadian economic impact, we expect to be quite limited,” he said, adding that trade between Canada and Japan doesn’t compare with Canada-U.S. trade.

“For us, it’s only the secondary impact of Japan’s effect on U.S. economic activity that were focused on,” he said.

Meanwhile, his colleague, Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at U.S.-based subsidiary Harris Private Bank, said he was knocking down his U.S. growth forecast by a percentage point because of the crisis in Japan.

Japan’s earthquake and nuclear disasters will likely reduce manufacturing output for several months, potentially creating shortages that could disrupt North American producers, such as automakers, that rely on Japan for parts.

General Motors said Thursday that it was suspending production at its Shreveport assembly plant in Louisiana next week due to a parts shortage resulting from the crisis in Japan, but so far its Canadian plants are operating normally, a spokesman said.

CIBC also cut its growth forecast for the U.S. growth by a tenth of a point, to 2.7 per cent, mostly due to the negative impact of oil price hikes and government spending cutbacks.

Among other things, CIBC senior economist Peter Buchanan noted in a report that surging gasoline prices raise questions about whether U.S. consumer spending can continue its increasingly healthy pace.

However, Buchanan believes that oil would have to reach US$160 a barrel to derail the economic recovery, a scenario he does not see playing out. After plunging in recent days, crude jumped $3.44 to settle at US$101.42 a barrel Thursday on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

“Oil has risen dramatically before, only to crash back to earth, and there are still good reasons why history may repeat itself,” Buchanan said.

Inventories in industrial countries were adequate when the Middle Eastern political pot began bubbling and OPEC, while it likes firm prices, has no interest in recession-inducing ones that crush demand.

Since Canada is one of the world’s top dozen net exporters of oil and oil products, higher crude prices are a modest plus for the economy in the near term.

But beyond four to five quarters, the drag on the economies of its major trading partners means the bad more than cancels the good, and the level of GDP is actually lower than it would otherwise have been.

While Canada is not immune to issues facing the global economy, the report forecasts real GDP growth of four per cent for the country in the first quarter of 2011 and Buchanan expects the Bank of Canada to hike its trend-setting overnight rate as early as May. http://ca.news.yahoo.com/canadian-gdp-grow-pace-four-per-cent-first-20110317-061726-639.html