The crash crowd says Canadian houses are overvalued on the basis of the price-to-income ratio. But with so much monetary stimulus in the system, the price-to-income ratio should also be normalized by income increases. (Ross D. Franklin/AP /Ross D. Franklin/AP) Trading Shots Why the housing market won’t crash in 2013 LARRY MACDONALD Special to The Globe and Mail Published Friday, Dec. 28 2012, 4:00 AM EST Last updated Friday, Dec. 28 2012, 4:00 AM EST

The 12-month change in the Teranet-National Bank House Price Index has decelerated in recent months to 3.4 per cent, led by declines in Vancouver (-1.4 per cent) and Victoria (-1.7 per cent). Some people interpret this weakness as a sign that a housing crash has started – see, for example, the Canadian Business article “Canada’s housing crash begins<http://d1ej5r2t2cu524.cloudfront.net/RaymondLee-Merix/merix-products-and-financial-update-please-respond-to-april-morin-merixfinancial-com/294705-d1ej5r2t2cu524.cloudfront.net/rachellegregorymarshall/merix-products-and-financial-update-please-reply-to-colleen-liao-merixfinancial-com/294625-www.canadianbusiness.com/lifestyle/canadas-housing-crash-begins/?c=2da348b7-ba03-400e-a47b-acd465ca2aa3>.” I don’t see a collapse in 2013 for several reasons. One is the highly supportive monetary environment.

In the case of the U.S. housing boom from 2003 to 2007, the overvaluation was pricked after the Federal Reserve dramatically tightened monetary policy to cool off an overheated economy. This catalyst is absent in Canada as 2013 commences.

Indeed, monetary policies in Canada, the U.S., Japan, China and elsewhere around the world are dialled to the opposite extreme. They are hyper-expansionary, with interest rates at record lows and printing presses running like never before.

This means that Canada and other countries should continue generating growth in jobs and income. Since higher employment and income typically support housing markets, prices are not likely to fall much in 2013. Or if they do, they shouldn’t stay down for long.

The crash crowd says Canadian houses are overvalued on the basis of the price-to-income ratio. So they fear the process of mean reversion will take prices down by 25 per cent or more. But with so much monetary stimulus in the system, the price-to-income ratio should also be normalized by income increases.

Interest rates may begin edging up later in 2013. They shouldn’t threaten the housing market because income and employment will be climbing as well, creating offsetting demand for housing. Similarly, the one-off impact of a tightening in mortgage rules during 2012 should not be cause for a serious setback.

There are other reasons for expecting a crash to be a no-show in 2013. Suffice it to say that the monetary cycle suggests a soft-landing scenario. This is not to deny there are pockets of extreme overvaluation or oversupply, where the risk of substantial correction remains. Cases in point could be Vancouver housing and Toronto condos

While I’ve been busy sinking money into mortgage payments, daycare costs, RESPs, RRSPs, utilities, groceries, vehicle maintenance and the occasional vacation, I’ve somehow failed to notice that many Canadians seem to be doing all this – and stepping up their mortgage repayments, too.

According to the Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals, over the past 20 years mortgage repayment periods have shrunk to two-thirds of the actual contracted period. Furthermore, during the past year – a time when household debt has soared to a record high – 32 per cent of borrowers have managed to dramatically accelerate their mortgage payment schedules.

Yes, you read that right. At a time when Canadians have loaded up on consumer, house and car debt, it appears that many people are finding ways to pay off their mortgages faster.

Of the almost 6 million mortgage-holders in Canada, about 1.9 million made additional payment efforts during the past year. I was not one of them, unless the biweekly payment option counts. Instead, I am among the 60 per cent of mortgage holders who made only their minimum mortgage payment.

The association’s annual survey, which was released last month, contains some interesting data about those aspiring to be mortgage-free sooner.

• $300 – the average monthly increase to regular mortgage payments in the past year
• $22,500 – the average lump sum payment among mortgage-holders in the past year
• $29,000 – the average lump sum payment among those now mortgage-free during the last year of their mortgage

Of course, paying off a mortgage faster is a good thing. But is all this bumping up regular payment amounts, making an annual balloon payment and increasing the frequency of payments, actually making a serious dent in people’s overall debt load?

Not necessarily, says Rona Birenbaum, a financial planner with Caring for Clients in Toronto. When she sees clients with very aggressive amortization schedules, a closer look at their cash flow reveals a starkly troubling overall financial picture.

“How are you affording this?” she asks them, “You must be creating debt somewhere else, and they are.”

Credit card balances and lines of credit are often rising on the other side of the ledger, she said. Keep in mind that credit card debt comes with higher – often very high – interest rates. All of that means that while people’s mortgage debt is falling, their consumer debt is rising.

“Overall, they are not getting ahead,” Ms. Birenbaum said.

Ultimately, the goal of mortgage freedom makes financial sense for everyone. But Ms. Birenbaum believes that the right approach to repaying mortgage debt depends on the individual or family. It requires discipline with cash flow, and a commitment not to spend a sudden injection of income, such as inheritances or bonuses, on items other than mortgage repayment.

“Interest rates may be low, but any interest is money out of your pocket and into the banks,” she said.

And with mortgage rates well below historical averages, borrowers can certainly save money by taking advantage of the low rates to shorten their amortization period.

The survey also noted that the average interest rate was 3.55 per cent, and that mortgage rate discounting remains “widespread” in Canada – with the average actual rate for a five-year fixed rate mortgage at 1.85 percentage points lower than the posted rates.

The report, which is based on an online survey of 2,018 Canadians, found that one-third said low interest rates have helped them beef up repayments, and that the majority planned to pay off their mortgage in less than 25 years.

For Ms. Birenbaum, the report shows that borrowers are getting savvy when it comes to the flexibility offered in their mortgages, but it also reflects some anxiety about what rising interest rates can mean if they don’t have the capacity to pay.

“Canadians are pretty freaked out by what happened in the U.S. and they don’t want to go down that path,” she said.

As a result of prudent mortgage lending practices, the number of mortgages in arrears in Canada was trending down in 2011 and the first half of 2012, according to the Canadian Housing Observer, released yesterday by CMHC.

“The Canadian Housing Observer is an indispensable source of information about housing’s role in the economy, and better information helps contribute to the stability and efficiency of Canada’s housing system,” said Karen Kinsley, President of CMHC. “This marks the 10-year anniversary of this publication, relied on by many in the private, non-profit and government sectors for its analysis and insight into the dynamics of Canadian housing,” added Kinsley.

Click here to read the latest Canadian Housing Observer.

Click here to see CMHC’s press release.

While I’ve been busy sinking money into mortgage payments, daycare costs, RESPs, RRSPs, utilities, groceries, vehicle maintenance and the occasional vacation, I’ve somehow failed to notice that many Canadians seem to be doing all this – and stepping up their mortgage repayments, too.

According to the Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals, over the past 20 years mortgage repayment periods have shrunk to two-thirds of the actual contracted period. Furthermore, during the past year – a time when household debt has soared to a record high – 32% of borrowers have managed to dramatically accelerate their mortgage payment schedules.

Yes, you read that right. At a time when Canadians have loaded up on consumer, house and car debt, it appears that many people are finding ways to pay off their mortgages faster.

Of the almost 6 million mortgage-holders in Canada, about 1.9 million made additional payment efforts during the past year. I was not one of them, unless the biweekly payment option counts. Instead, I am among the 60% of mortgage holders who made only their minimum mortgage payment.

Click here for more from the Globe and Mail.

OTTAWA — Canadians are more in hock today than ever before, Statistics Canada said Thursday in releasing fresh data on household debt.

The new report shows household debt to annual disposable income reached a new high at 164.6%, from 163.3% the previous quarter.

Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney has named rising household debt a key risk to the Canadian economy, but noted this week he was encouraged that credit growth appeared to be slowing.

Still, Carney has also said he expects the debt-to-income ratio to keep rising over the next couple of years. That is in part because of a lag in time between purchase decisions — such as a new home — and when the debt gets registered.

In the July-September period, households borrowed $27.3-billion, $18.4-billion of that in mortgages, while consumer credit levels increased by $7-billion to $474-billion.

The high debt-to-income number may surprise Canadians who only a few months ago were told it was just above 150%. But Statistics Canada has recently revised how it calculates the measure to make it more representative of actual household finances.

As well, household net worth rose 1% to $197,800 in the July-September period, mostly due to gains in holdings in stocks, including mutual funds, and increased value of pension assets.

Economist Jimmy Jean of Desjardins Capital Markets said the report is unlikely to change the perception of Canada’s debt problem.

The debt-to-income ratio has been setting new records since 2003, but remains below the peak reached south of the border before the 2007 housing crash. StatsCan says using equivalent measurements, Canada’s ratio is about 10 percentage points below the peak reached in the U.S. prior to the housing crash in 2007.

The Bank of Canada, Jean notes, shouldn’t be shifted from its interest rate stance given “the evolution of debt seems to tie in to its expectations.” He pointed out that the effect of mortgage tightening rules brought in July had only begun to be felt in the third quarter numbers.

But while managing debt doesn’t appear to be a major concern at the moment, thanks to super-low interest rates, the danger signs continue to flash red, economists warned.

“The high level of debt leaves households more vulnerable to a rise in interest rates than they have been in the past,” said TD Bank economist Diana Petramala.

“Given the prospects that interest rates will eventually rise, households must cool their spending and borrowing further.”

On a national accounting level, Canada’s net worth increased by more than $9-billion in the third quarter to $6.8-trillion. That translates to $194,100 per person.

However, an increase in net foreign indebtedness dampened the gain, the agency said.

This higher net foreign debt was largely a result of increased Canadian borrowing abroad, as well as a decrease in the value of Canadian investments denominated in foreign currency because of the rising value of the loonie.

 The Canadian Press

On Thursday, Amanda Lang—co-host of The Lang and O’Leary Exchange—made a comment worth exploring.

While talking with Kevin O’Leary about the risks of variable mortgage rates, she stated:

“Some people can forecast [rates] and arrange their affairs accordingly. Rates won’t…gap up. They will climb in some orderly fashion.

…It’s very rare to see a multi-move up or down with interest rates…People of means…can actually take their time…and then still lock in with plenty of time to get a decent longer-term rate.”

If you’ve studied rate history, however, you know that interest rate behaviour doesn’t cater to these assumptions.

In the modern era of Canadian monetary policy (1991 to today):

Rates have moved swiftly at times

• In 1994, prime rate shot up 425 basis points in 13 months
• In 1997, prime rose 250 bps in 12 months
• In 2000, prime fell 375 bps in 13 months
• In 2005, prime jumped 175 bps in 9 months.
• In 2007, prime dropped 400 bps in 17 months

Rates sometimes climb in leaps, not steps

• Since ’91, there have been four instances where multiple 50+ bps rate hikes occurred over spans of six months or less

There have been periods where today’s fixed rates would have outperformed a variable

• Coming off a cyclical bottom, the average increase in prime rate has been 3.16% (that’s from trough to peak, over the last three major rate cycles)
• After these rate bottoms were made, prime rate was 1.23% higher, on average, over the next five years. Put another way, if you had picked the worst possible time to get a variable-rate mortgage (i.e., right before rates increased), your rate would have averaged 1.23% more over the following five years.

Locking in on time isn’t easy

• Traders sell bonds at the first hint that future inflation could exceed the BoC’s comfort zone. Historically, that selling has occurred anywhere from 1-6 months before increases in prime rate. When bond prices fall, bond rates rise in lockstep, which lifts fixed mortgage rates in the process.
• History has shown that it’s costly for variable-rate borrowers to wait for the first increase in prime rate before locking in. Fixed rates have often risen 50 bps or more leading up to initial rate hikes. Waiting for the 2^nd increase in prime is even more costly.
• Folks also have to remember that conversion rates are almost always higher than regular mortgage rates. Due to breakage penalties, discharge fees and aversion to change/inconvenience, lenders know that variable-rate customers are captive. Lock in today, for example, and you probably wouldn’t get 2.94% on a 5-year fixed. You’d get 3.09-3.19%, if you’re lucky.

Of course, 22 years of rate history doesn’t tell us what will happen next year, or the year after. The message here is more of a reminder not to overestimate our rate timing ability.

A strategy based on locking in after the first BoC rate increase is usually counterproductive. When the difference between fixed and variable rates is as tight as today’s 39 basis points, most rate-lockers would be better off with a low fixed rate from the get-go.

It also doesn’t help to use rising bond yields as a signal to lock in. The problem there is that the bond market creates more fakeouts than Barry Sanders in his prime. A 75-basis point upmove in the 5-year yield could easily be followed by a 75-basis point drop, leading you to lock in for nothing.

********

For the record, our sense is that rates won’t rise materially for several months—and when they do, it should be a gradual incline. But that is more of an educated guess than a useful conviction.

When inflation threats eventually appear, they could surprise the market and force bond traders to rapidly reverse their positions. When investors rush to dump bonds, fixed rates can climb like an F-35 on takeoff. And if this were to happen in the next year or so, fears of a deflating “bond market bubble” could intensify this selling.

In short, believing we can lock in “at the right time” is overoptimistic, to put it mildly. Variable and short-term mortgages are indeed the best fit for some borrowers, but anyone with visions of saving ½ point in a variable and then converting to a fixed should get acquainted with history.

Julia Thomson hasn’t won the lottery. She hasn’t been reunited with a long lost, fabulously wealthy, and remarkably generous uncle. And she hasn’t discovered oil in her backyard. All of which is surprising, considering this declaration: “We paid off our mortgage in four and a half years.”

When Thomson and her husband were approved for their first mortgage, they didn’t have any assets, but they did have a desire to be mortgage-free as soon as possible. According to her, as well as experts from banks and consumer agencies, first-time homebuyers can take a few steps to ensure that their mortgage is manageable.

Tip #1: Buy the house you can afford

Don’t confuse your budget with your bank’s budget, says Thomson.

“Going in for our mortgage, I was astounded at how much we were approved for. The bank approved us for an amount high enough that it scared us.”

Julie Hauser, of the Financial Consumer Agency of Canada, confirms that homebuyers need to budget realistically. “Make the right decision for your own needs,” she advises.

Eventually, Thomson and her husband decided to buy a house far less expensive than what the bank would have allowed, and their decision meant they could sacrifice less and pay the mortgage off faster.

Tip #2: When budgeting, consider flexibility on amortization, monthly expenses and financial goals

This year, the maximum amortization on high-ratio-insured mortgages was reduced from 30 years to 25. Colette Delaney, executive vice-president of Mortgage, Lending, Insurance and Deposit Products at CIBC, notes that while this will increase the monthly payment on a mortgage, it will also help homeowners pay it off sooner.

“You can give yourself added flexibility on your amortization by establishing a 25-year mortgage, and then increasing your regular payments to help you reduce that amortization as you begin paying down your mortgage. Should you later need to reduce your payment temporarily – for example, as you welcome a new baby into the family – you can reduce your payment while remaining within your 25-year amortization,” she says.

And, of course, don’t forget to calculate your monthly expenses, possibly with the help of a financial advisor, to make sure that your payments stay within your comfort zone.

“Your mortgage payments should fit your life – you shouldn’t have to fit your life into a mortgage payment,” Delaney says.

Tip #3: Take the time to get pre-approved

Now more than ever, it’s important to get pre-approval before you even start house hunting. Delaney explains how preapproval will ensure you’re within the ratios for an insured mortgage:

“A pre-approval gives you a guaranteed rate before you begin the process of looking at properties, and allows you to uncover any items that could be an issue for you later in the process,” she says. “For example, if you need some additional documentation to support your income or need to finalize arrangements for your down payment, a pre-approval conversation would identify those issues and give you the time to address them before you make an offer on a property.”

Finally, if new homeowners are looking for tips after they’ve secured their mortgage, Thomson has a big one: “Prioritize it.

“It hurt, but we did it,” she says, remembering large lumps of cash leaving her bank account the week after Christmas. She doesn’t have as many pairs of shoes as she would have otherwise, she admits. “But we weren’t paupers – because we prioritized our mortgage.”

And at least she has bragging rights to having paid it off in four and a half years.