Scotiabank today released the results of a recent poll looking at consumer debt levels and practices, and how Canadians are feeling about their debt. 

The study was conducted by Harris/Decima and assessed the borrowing habits of Canadians. More than half of Canadians (56%) feel their level of debt is manageable and an additional 27%. A smaller number of Canadians (17%) reported feeling overwhelmed by their debt, and many of these people carry a credit card or line of credit balance. 

“We know that a majority of Canadians are interested in having a plan that looks at their overall financial health and helps them make the most of their money,” said Mike Henry, Senior Vice President of Retail Payments, Deposits and Lending at Scotiabank. “Whether it’s renovating their home, funding a child’s education or planning for retirement, having a financial plan with a manageable borrowing strategy will help Canadians plan for and manage the role that debt plays in reaching their life and financial goals.”

Many Canadians do not currently have an outstanding balance on their credit card or on their line of credit (56% and 40% respectively). In fact, four-in-ten (41%) respondents never carry a balance on their credit card and one-third (31%) never carry a balance on their line of credit. An additional one-in-five only use their credit card or line of credit (18% and 22% respectively) in the case of an emergency. 

Click here for the Scotiabank news release.

Financial Post Staff OTTAWA — Consumer prices were up 3.7% in May from a year earlier, the biggest leap since March 2003, Statistics Canada said Wednesday.

Economists polled by Bloomberg expected 3.3% annual inflation in May.

Gasoline prices were cited for the main reason for such a high inflation rate last month.

The core inflation rate, which factors out volatile items such as energy and certain foods, was 1.8%. Economists anticipated 1.5%.

The Canadian dollar firmed to a session high of $1.0280 after the data was released.

More to come … http://business.financialpost.com/2011/06/29/canadas-inflation-jumps/

Farewell and good riddance to the first half of 2011 — six months that are ending as sour for the economy as they began.

Most analysts say economic growth will perk up in the second half of the year. The reason is that the main causes of the slowdown — high oil prices and manufacturing delays because of the disaster in Japan — have started to fade.

“Some of the headwinds that caused us to slow are turning into tail winds,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.

For an economy barely inching ahead two years after the Great Recession ended, the first half of 2011 can’t end soon enough. Severe storms and rising gasoline prices held growth in January, February and March to a glacial annual rate of 1.9 per cent.

The current quarter isn’t shaping up much better. The average growth forecast of 38 top economists surveyed by The Associated Press is 2.3 per cent.

The economy has to grow 3 per cent a year just to hold the unemployment rate steady and keep up with population growth. And it has to average about 5 per cent growth for a year to lower the unemployment rate by a full percentage point. It is 9.1 per cent today.

As welcome as the stronger growth envisioned in the second half is, the improvement should be modest. For the final six months of the year, the AP economists forecast a growth rate of 3.2 per cent.

So far this year, high gas and food prices have discouraged people from spending much on other things — from furniture and appliances to dinners out and vacations. That spending fuels economic growth.

And some U.S. auto factories had to suspend or trim production after the March earthquake in Japan interrupted supplies of parts and electronics. American dealerships have had fewer cars to sell.

The latest dose of glum news: The government reported Monday that consumer spending was about the same in May as in April, the first time in a year that spending hasn’t increased from the previous month.

The report confirmed the toll that high gas prices, Japan-related disruptions and high unemployment have taken on personal spending in the second quarter.

“Here’s to a better third,” says Jennifer Lee, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets.

Relief is in sight, economists say. Oil prices have been falling since Memorial Day. The drop has lowered the price of regular unleaded gasoline by 23 cents in the past month, to a national average of $3.57 a gallon, according to AAA.

The timing of the drop in gas prices is especially fortunate because they usually rise during summer driving season, says Robert DiClemente, chief U.S. economist at Citigroup .

And the kinks in the global manufacturing chain are starting to be smoothed out as the Japanese factories that make cars and electronics resume production.

Diane Swonk, chief economist at Mesirow Financial, says auto sales should improve “quite substantially” later this year because the lost production from the earthquake is coming back faster than had been expected.

One sign of that rebound came when the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago reported Monday that manufacturing in the Midwest rebounded in May after falling sharply in April.

And last week, the government said orders for machinery, computers, cars and other durable goods rose slightly in May after dropping in April. Economists attributed the turnaround, in part, to Japanese factories that started to rev up.

The U.S. economy is also expected to get a slight second-half boost from reconstruction in flood-ravaged sections of the South and Midwest. Construction workers will be employed rebuilding homes and businesses. People will replace destroyed cars and other possessions. Analysts predict the economic losses from the floods in the April-June quarter will be reversed in the July-September quarter.

The economists surveyed by AP predict unemployment will fall to 8.7 per cent at year’s end. It is not exactly the start of a boom: The economy is still carrying too much baggage from the financial crisis — damaged banks, depressed home prices, debt-burdened consumers — to achieve much liftoff.

Though some of the economy’s weakness in the first half is temporary, “it is hard to see much on the horizon to cheer about,” Swonk says. http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/Why-economists-see-modestly-capress-1496951129.html?x=0

If you use LinkedIn correctly, it can be a marketing godsend.

You can form relationships with hundreds of potential customers and solidify your brand — without spending an arm and a leg.

Do it, wrong, however, and you won’t just embarrass yourself. You might actually hurt your company’s reputation, and your own.

How to do it right?

Learn the most common mistakes small business owners make on LinkedIn — and what to do about them.

Mistake: Coming on too strong in your profile

LinkedIn is all about the subtle, soft sell. Promote your product or service too openly on your profile and you’ll be sure to turn people off.

“You don’t want to sound like you’re bragging,” says Jill Konrath, a sales expert and CEO of Sellingtobigcompanies.com

The answer:

Get your customers to write as many positive reviews of your company on your profile as possible.

If people who use your product or service comment about it, you’ll increase your credibility. Why? It shows that customers are willing to take time out of their busy days to write something nice about your company. “It carries more clout,” says Konrath.

Mistake: Promoting your product or service in a message or a group discussion

Similarly, just because you’ve connected with someone, doesn’t mean you have permission to start plugging your wares.“It feels like a violation,” says Konrath.

That’s also true for group discussions. “People will see right through you,” says Patrick O’Malley, who runs 617-PATRICK Social Media Training and Consulting in Medford, Mass.

In fact, according to O’Malley, you can be tagged for spam if you do that too often.

The answer:

Before contacting anyone, make sure you understand the number one rule of making connections on LinkedIn: keep it low-key.

In group discussions, don’t ask questions or make comments that are obvious sales pitches. Instead, establish yourself as a key expert or resource by providing thoughtful, pithy observations.

Mistake: Failing to highlight the problems you solve for customers in your profile

Too often, small business owners describe the product or service they sell in their profile, without explaining what the benefits are.

Result: you miss the chance to stand out from the crowd

The answer:

Focus on the issues and challenges your company addresses.

Examples: “We help customers struggling to increase their sales to tap new markets,” or, “We show companies how to decrease their manufacturing costs.”

“You’re talking about results, and that’s what attracts more interest,” says Konrath.

Mistake: Not taking advantage of all the capabilities available

LinkedIn provides access to a plethora of research and other features that many people aren’t aware of.

“They’re things that, quite simply, can give you a leg up on the competition,” says Konrath. “People think of it as a referral network, but there’s a lot more.”

The answer:

Find out what LinkedIn has to offer — and use it.

Example: Before every first-time meeting with a prospect. Konrath always checks the person’s LinkedIn profile to learn about the individual’s background and interests.

It’s information she uses to “create important connections right away that I couldn’t make otherwise,” she says.

Mistake: Joining too many groups

By taking part in group discussions, you can attract a lot of positive attention.

But, join too many and you’ll be spread too thin.

The answer:

Focus on two or three that are most likely to provide access to potential customers or partners.

Mistake: Inviting too many people you don’t know

Do that a lot and you can get in a heap of trouble: you’ll find yourself on a list of violators.

Then, if you want to invite somebody to join you, you’ll need to have their email address to do so, according to O’Malley.

The answer:

Just don’t do it. Make sure you know your invitees.

And be especially careful if you’re inviting a lot of people at one fell swoop. O’Malley, for example, once invited 3,000 people, only to find that several of them were individuals with the same name as contacts he knew. He’s never done that again.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/6-common-linkedin-mistakes-small-businesses-make-and-what-to-do-instead-2010-4#ixzz1QQkpFLlC

Strain from a world awash in debt is increasing the risk to what is already a fragile and weak economic recovery, the Bank of Canada warns.

And Canada faces a second, more immediate challenge from temporary factors such as disruptions from the Japanese earthquake and tsunami that will limit growth to about one per cent this quarter, governor Mark Carney added Wednesday.

“This is a disruptive time, there are a major series of changes going on … so there will be some volatility,” Carney told a Senate committee after his bank released its latest biennial Financial Systems Review.

The U.S. economy — which most Canadian exporters depend on — is a shadow of itself, he said, adding that U.S. households may need a decade to get out from debt.

Meanwhile, although emerging economies are booming, Canada’s exporters, with the exception of commodities, are under-represented in that world.

And lastly, there’s the mountain of debt weighing on the balance sheets of advanced countries, from Japan to parts of Europe to the U.S., that will dampen growth for years.

The summary put into stark language the findings of the central bank’s financial systems review, released earlier in the morning, which took a more pessimistic view of the recovery.

The big problem facing the world is debt. Debt even threatens Canada’s economy, given that household indebtedness is at record levels and could grow further before tailing off.

“The key risks to the stability of the Canadian financial system remain elevated and have edged higher since December,” the bank concludes in the systems review.

For the first time, Carney revealed to a Senate committee that the current second quarter in Canada could see growth drop all the way to one per cent, from 3.9 per cent in the first three months.

Acknowledging that he had previously predicted growth of two per cent this quarter, which ends June 30, Carney told the senators: “The growth could be even lighter than that, it could be in the one per cent range.”

He added, however, that he still expects the economy to do better in the second half of this year.

The bank report and Carney’s testimony comes as Greece is again under the gun to hold off a credit default that would likely cripple some European banks and possibly touch off a new round of global financial jitters.

But the Bank of Canada says the debt woes extend further than Greece to other peripheral European nations — Spain, Portugal and Ireland — and over the longer term, to the U.S. and Japan .

Canada too faces a troubling household debt issue, the bank warns, which could be exacerbated by shocks, including an economic downturn and interest rate hikes.

In a separate report card, U.S. Federal Reserve officials also took a darker view of the situation, downgrading growth expectations both for the economy and job creation.

All these risks “are interconnected and mutually reinforcing,” the Bank of Canada said.

Carney urged Canadians to keep things in perspective, however, growth is “reclining, not declining,” and Canada still benefits from sound fundamentals.

Canada’s financial system got a “healthy” grade both in terms of the soundness of the banking system and business balance sheets, but it is vulnerable somewhat to outside forces.

Carney said Canada’s exposure to Europe’s sovereign debt is small, but not insignificant, given the interconnectiveness of the international banking system.

“The Canadian financial system is not immune to the tensions that are currently affecting European markets,” the bank’s policy council says in the report.

Finance Minister Jim Flaherty has also expressed concern about the Greek crisis, urging European policy-makers to “create a firewall that would ensure that this type of issue would not spread beyond Greece.”

Despite the weak recovery and the pain it will cause, governments have no choice but to start the process of getting their fiscal houses in order, said Carney.

He cautioned that indebted countries, even the U.S., shouldn’t assume bond markets will be always be prepared to fill their credit needs at reasonable rates. Canada learned that lesson the hard way in the 1990s, he pointed out.

“Our experience in the mid-1990s is that the bond market is there and then it’s not,” he said.

Domestically, the bank is still very worried about Canadian household debt, which is at an all-time high of 147 per cent of disposable income.

The risk, it says, is that as household finances get squeezed, Canadians will have less money to spend on consumer goods, which would slow down economic growth.

“Further moderation in the pace of debt accumulation by households is needed to contain the buildup of this vulnerability,” it says.

The bank also cites global imbalances, the two-speed recovery where advanced nations grow far slower than emerging economies, as additional risks that appear no closer to resolution.

“If the significant fragilities that still burden the financial system are not addressed in a timely manner, the progress achieved to date could be derailed,” the bank said.

TD Bank economist Diana Petramala said the report suggests the Bank of Canada is very much in worry mode, and is unlikely to raise interest rates — which could weaken the economy — until 2012.

“All of these risks (cited by the central bank) could have significant economic consequences on Canada’s economy and financial system,” if they are borne out, Petramala said.

“In addition, they are medium-term (rather than short-term) in nature, suggesting they are unlikely to disappear any time soon. Under our current forecast, we don’t anticipate Canada’s overnight rate to reach a more normal level of three per cent until 2013.”

The bank last hiked interest rates last September , lifting its policy setting to one per cent, still exceptionally low by historical standards. http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/Bank-Canada-Carney-warns-capress-4229338819.html?x=0

Part of taking on responsibility, is being aware of dangers and pitfalls, and developing a plan to navigate them should they appear.

And so it is with home ownership. Despite efforts to plan and account for expenses, there are many things that may cross a homeowner’s path that they may have not anticipated- job loss, changes to family situation, or increase in consumer prices. Add to that a factor that many are aware of- but may not necessarily have built in- the eventual increase in interest rates, and there is potential financial disaster awaiting those who may have jumped into the home ownership pool without enough of a buffer to keep them afloat.

Jim Flaherty’s series of mortgage and HELOC changes were intended to sort through the homeowner pool, in a way, and to cut those out who were on the fringe- and representing trouble from the outset.

However, through these changes, and with Canadian household debt increasing, the Canadian housing market has still remained buoyant- and in some areas, absolutely exploded. Housing sales themselves have decreased this year- while the average prices for home nationally continue to increase.

Jeffrey Schwartz, Executive Director, Consolidated Credit Counseling Services of Canada, Inc. told Properywire.ca, that he is  seeing the positive effects from Flaherty’s changes, and feels that there has been some material impact on the market. It’s not a case of home ownership being an exclusive club, either; more so it is about matching appropriate product with appropriate consumer responsibly.

“There were two objectives with Flaherty’s mortgage changes. They have been effective in reducing the number of people taking on more debt than they can handle. Some can make payments today, but will be stretched pretty thin if income changes or rates go up. Those that are living on the fringe continue to have trouble, and are living on a tight wire. These mortgage changes have been useful in effectively taking these people out of the mortgage market.”

“The second objective was to encourage people to pay off debt faster, so that people are not carrying debt into retirement with them. People are encouraged to retire debt, so that they increase cash flow- and put out less towards interest payments.”

“We know this is working, because home sales have slowed. This is likely reflective of stronger people entering the market.”

It is important to view home ownership as goal, not as a right, and that certain steps must be taken and displayed in order to reach that goal, and that there is a downside if due diligence is not adhered to , as  Michael Kalles, President, Harvey Kalles Real Estate Ltd., Brokerage told Propertywire.ca, “Home ownership is an excellent option for those who are able to afford it, but don’t assume that it is for everyone…For everyone who can afford it, yes home ownership makes sense.  Look at what happened in the US. People were getting mortgages when they didn’t really qualify… In that case, it was a poor investment. “

“For those that are able to afford it, home ownership offers the opportunity for people to invest in themselves, take advantage of capital gains, build equity and house their families.”

Kalles is quick to remind too, that it always comes down to assessing and delivering on the client’s best interests, even if that is not what they have indicated: “It’s not about making a quick commission; it is about the best needs of the client.”

Sometimes , even though it seems counterintuitive in a heavily competitive business reliant on winning clients over, it makes good sense to send them away: “If any client has only been approved for, say 600,000- but are absolutely insistent that they look at $800,00 properties,  than they are stretched beyond their financial comfort level. “

Schwartz suggests that solutions must be more behavioural than episodic: “People need to understand where their money is going, and look for alternatives to save money- for instance in entertainment, dining out and groceries .These are easy areas to turn a household budget into a surplus rather than a deficit each month.”

“Furthermore, people need to take that money and turn it into savings, and make that process invisible- through payroll deductions or automatic transfer of funds. Take this process out of your hands, and it will happen. If you don’t, it won’t.”

Canada’s unemployment rate fell to its lowest in more than two years as a combination of more self-employed workers and fewer job seekers in May pushed the key economic marker down to 7.4 per cent.

Statistics Canada said 22,300 new jobs were created last month, slightly above consensus estimates following April’s strong 58,000 jobs gain. The last time Canada’s unemployment rate was as low as 7.4 per cent was in January 2009, a few months after the economy had plunged into recession.

The finer details of the May report were less impressive, however.

The jobless rate dropped two-tenths of a point due as much to the fact that 27,500 fewer Canadians were actively looking for work as to the new jobs created.

While all the jobs were full time, they came in the less desirable self-employment category, which could indicate that many Canadians turned to creating their own employment because they were unable to find more traditional work.

“Small business is of vital importance to the Canadian economy, but job creation within this category in a soft spot for the economy (and) is always a knock against the quality of the headline gain,” Derek Holt, vice-president of economics for Scotiabank, said in a note to clients.

The number of employees in Canada actually dropped by 7,500 in May and the goods producing sector of the economy saw a pullback in employment, with manufacturing taking the biggest hit with 22,500 fewer jobs. The month also showed the public sector is starting to tighten, shedding 44,300 jobs as governments begin dealing with large deficits.

The markets treated the report as a status quo finding. The loonie barely budged after the data was released early Friday, although the currency swooned in later trading on dipping oil prices.

Holt noted that hours worked rose just 0.3 per cent and wages were only 2.2 per cent higher than last year, down from 2.6 per cent in March.

“After stripping out inflation, real wages are going nowhere and that remains bearish for consumer spending as households are simply unable to post income growth beyond covering higher fuel and grocery costs in a generalized commodity shock,” he said.

Still, analysts said any job gain following April’s strong advance is good news. It showed April was not a mirage.

“The details in this month’s job growth were not all rosy, but any gains at all were impressive given that they came on the heels of an outsized 58,000 prior-month tally and amidst signs that the economy is decelerating sharply in the second quarter,” said CIBC chief economist Avery Shenfeld .

Not to be overlooked, he added, is that private sector employers added workers, although a small number.

Another positive for the future, said Jimmy Jean of Desjardins Capital Markets, is that the factory sector is likely to recover once supply chain disruptions from the Japanese natural disaster are resolved.

The summer months will also benefit from an additional $10 million Ottawa is pumping into the summer jobs program to encourage student hiring. Labour Minister Diane Finley says government support will create 36,000 student jobs this summer.

Most economists had predicted a slowdown in job creation not only because they viewed April’s increase as an above-trend anomaly but also because other economic indicators pointed to slowing activity.

Meanwhile, consumer spending and housing have fallen off of late and, earlier in the week, the government reported that the important export sector shrank by 1.1 per cent in volume terms in April.

Despite the softness, Canada’s economy is doing far better than its southern neighbour, which in the same month created only 54,000 jobs, a tiny amount given the size of the U.S. labour force.

In the past year, Canada has more than recouped all the jobs lost during the 2008-2009 recession, creating 273,000 in the last 12 months alone, most full time and in the private sector. Meanwhile, the U.S. remains several million shy of its pre-crisis level and the jobless rate is above nine per cent.

In May, most of Canada’s employment gains came in the retail and wholesale trade industries, and in information, culture and recreation. There were losses in manufacturing and educational services, mostly of those in post-secondary institutions.

Regionally, the lion’s share of job creation came in Quebec, which saw its employment rise by 24,800, while Ontario saw a drop-off of 16,100. http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/Canada-jobless-rate-falls-capress-4119373303.html?x=0

Canada’s recreational property market appears to be bouncing back from a recessionary lull as buyers seek to capitalize on equity and stock-market gains, Re/Max says in a report Monday.

Demand rose 78% in the 46 markets across the country covered by the realtor’s Recreational Property Report, while sales had risen or were on par in 41% of those centres.

“Buyers who held off during the recession are back in recreational property markets from coast-to-coast,” says Pamela Alexander, chief executive of Re/Max for Ontario-Atlantic Canada. “Their patience has been rewarded with more affordable recreational values and greater inventory levels.”

While prices have remained stable in many markets, values could be found for higher-end properties, pushing luxury sales higher in almost half of the markets examined, Re/Max said in its report.

Opportunities were also to be found in Western Canada.

“Prices are down as much as 20% from peak levels reported in 2006-2007, bringing ownership within reach to many potential purchasers,” said Elton Ash, regional executive vice-president of Re/Max in Western Canada.

On British Columbia’s Salt Spring Island, for example, starting prices for oceanfront properties have fallen to $669,000 today from $1.3-million in 2008.

In the North Okanagan Valley, a three-bedroom, winterized recreational property on a standard-sized waterfront lot — the common measures used in Re/Max’s report — that sold for $1.5-million in 2008 now sells for $995,000.

Starting prices for similar properties on Alberta’s Sylvan Lake are now at $800,000 from $1.25-million previously and in the Rocky Mountain resort town of Canmore, a two-bedroom condo has fallen to $229,000 from $320,000.

“The strengthening oil sector has . . . brought Albertans back into mix, driving demand for both local and coastal B.C. properties,” Ash said.

Another factor influencing the recreational property market has been that Americans who bought when the Canadian dollar was at 65 U.S. cents are now cashing out, boosting inventories.

The report found that there has been some tightening for entry-level properties in about one-third of the markets covered. As well, it noted, the supply of properties has tightened considerably at the lower end in Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada.

It also noted that recreational properties are moving more toward year-round homes, with fewer traditional cottages available for sale.

“These waterfront properties are disappearing from the landscape. Meanwhile, today’s average recreational getaways are truly earning the distinction as the “home away from home,” with many of the bells, whistles and comforts of their residential counterparts http://business.financialpost.com/2011/06/13/recreational-property-markets-bouncing-back-remax/

 The TD Bank says Canadians can expect borrowing costs to remain near record lows for the rest of the year.

That’s because the pace of the economic recovery is expected to slow sharply in Canada, the United States and much of the world.

As such, the Bank of Canada will likely refrain from raising its key interest rates until 2012, TD says.

The central bank has had its policy rate set at one per cent since September. The rate was set at all-time low of 0.25 per cent through much of the recession, to stimulate borrowing and spending, until a series of rate hikes began last summer.

The still-low rates have been a double-edged sword for Canadians who are already piling up debt at record levels, according to the Certified General Accountants Association of Canada.

The association says Canadian household debt has reached a record $1.5 trillion, and calculates that more than half of indebted Canadians are borrowing just to afford day-to-day living expenses such as food, housing and transportation.

Low interest rates will make it easier for Canadians to keep borrowing, setting them up for a fall further down the road.

Debt is partly contributing to a slowdown in Canadian growth, says the TD Bank, because households are too tapped out to spend and stimulate the economy.

The bank says Canada’s economy is believed to have already slowed to 1.3 per cent growth during this current quarter that ends at the end of the month, one-third the pace of the first quarter’s 3.9 per cent gain.

The rest of the year will see growth crawl along between two and 2.5 per cent, the bank says.

As the recovery moderates, so will job growth. The bank says it expects the unemployment rate in Canada will remain above seven per cent throughout its forecast period to the end of 2013.

With little help from consumers, Canada will need to depend on exports and business investment to fuel growth. http://www.therecord.com/news/business/article/547758–td-bank-forecasts-low-interest-rates-this-year

VANCOUVER – Canada’s housing market is entering overheated territory and many Canadians could be financially hurt once interest rates begin to rise, Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney is warning.

The central banker on took his case for moderation on Wednesday to Vancouver, the epicentre of Canada’s hot housing market where he says home prices are now on par with Hong Kong and Sydney, Australia, as they relate to average incomes.

And some sectors of the market, like condos in big cities, could overshoot because of speculation from foreign investors.

The housing market is still expected to moderate, he said, but recent signals have been mixed.

Carney has been cautioning Canadians for about two year against getting overextended on mortgage borrowing, but Wednesday’s speech to the Vancouver Board of Trade suggested some frustration that his words have mostly fallen on deaf ears.

The governor said he has been expecting the housing market to slow, but besides some stuttering signals, it has picked up again of late along with borrowing and mortgage credit.

Once again, Carney repeated his warning to Canadians about becoming overextended.

“It is important that it’s emphasized, because it can be forgotten, that we are living in extraordinary times with interest rates that are unusually low, that the outlook for the Canadian economy, the strength of the Canadian economy, the expectations both in the medium term and sooner than the medium term, is that rates are not going to stay at these unusually low levels,” he said told a later news conference.

“And so Canadians in taking on debt, or Vancouverites, more specifically, in taking on debt, need to…ensure that they can continue to service those debts comfortably in a higher-rate environment.”

Carney’ speech came on the day the Canadian Real Estate Association released new data showing that average resale home prices rose 8.6 per cent in May from a year ago, and that in Vancouver prices were up 25.7 per cent to $831,555.

At those levels, Carney said Vancouverites are paying 11 times family household income for a home, a multiple similar to global housing hot spots Hong Kong and Sydney, Australia.

When asked if he had any advice to young people who hope to buy a house in Vancouver, Carney responded, “Well, get a good job. That would probably be a good one. Study hard, stay in school and get a good job. How’s that?”

The situation is not as dramatic in the rest of the country, but it’s bad enough, he said.

He noted that it took nearly 12 years for real estate investment to regain its peak after the 1990s recession. It has taken a year and a half this time and, in fact, average home prices are now 13 per cent higher than where they stood before the 2008-2009 slump.

Carney takes some of the blame for the unprecedented run-up in prices, since the key difference between the two eras is that he drove interest rates down to historic lows in order to salvage the economy. The policy succeeded, but at a cost of driving investment from more productive outlets of the economy to housing.

But he also lays some blame on home buyers, who he implies should know better. He said some Canadians are taking on mortgages as if they believe current ultra-low rates will last forever. They won’t, he warns.

“Rates will not remain at their current levels forever,” he said. “(And) the impact of eventual increases is likely to be greater than in previous cycles.”

A four per cent real mortgage interest rate would see home affordability in Canada fall to the worst level in 16 years, he said. The current real mortgage interest rate, which excludes inflation, is about 2.4 per cent.

Other than issuing a general alert, Carney gave few hints what he can do about it and implied that the ball is in the federal government’s court to tighten borrowing requirements again if necessary.

Carney refused to comment when asked whether the government should restrict home ownership to those with Canadian citizenship.

“Obviously, if one restricts demand and takes an important element of marginal demand out of the equation there’s going to be an adjustment to price,” he said.

“But those type of decisions are decisions for communities to make, and they’re complex decisions, and nothing should be read into our commentary about the current environment and housing, whether it’s in Vancouver or across the country.”

“We’re not weighing into that issue at all.”

Finance Minister Jim Flaherty this week also expressed concern with household debt — now amounting to a record $1.5 trillion in the aggregate — and noted he has tightened mortgage requirements three times in the past three years.

Carney suggested in his speech that he will use monetary policy, or interest rate setting, to impact the inflation rate and not exclusively the housing market. http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/Carney-warns-trouble-capress-560228003.html?x=0