25 Nov

Low interest rates making home ownership slightly more affordable, says RBC

General

Posted by: Steven Brouwer

OTTAWA – A new report finds low interest rates are keeping Canadian house prices within reach of homebuyers in many markets.

The Royal Bank’s quarterly report on housing trends, released early Friday, shows housing affordability improved slightly in the third quarter, after two consecutive quarters when things got worse.

RBC chief economist Craig Wright says a lower interest rate environment, which includes mortgage rates, is helping to reduce the cost of a home.

“Elevated uncertainty relating to the European sovereign-debt crisis and the downside risk for economic growth have contributed to keeping interest rates at low levels,” said Wright.

Those lower rates are helping to cushion the impact of rising home prices in many cities even as the economy slow and consumer confidence weakens.

The bank says affordability levels rose for all housing categories, although most improvements were less than one per cent.

“Housing affordability levels are quite good in most parts of Canada and will pose little threat to overall housing demand,” said Wright.

Among the most marked improvements in affordability were for two-storey homes and bungalows in Montreal, two-storey houses in Manitoba, and detached bungalows in Vancouver, Canada’s most expensive housing market.

Royal’s affordability measure for Vancouver fell slightly from the previous quarter, but remained above 90 per cent.

Toronto is next in the index at 52.1 per cent, Montreal is at 40.9, Ottawa 40.8, Calgary 37.6, and Edmonton 33.2.

“The Vancouver area market continues to be a major exception, with sky-high property values in upscale neighbourhoods making it both extremely unaffordable and the most at risk of a downward correction,” said Wright

A reading of 50 per cent means homeownership costs take up 50 per cent of a typical household’s monthly pre-tax income. The higher the rate, the higher the cost.

RBC forecasts that interest rates will remain exceptionally low in Canada until mid-2012 and rise gradually after that.

“We expect to see further slowing in the pace of home price increases next year, as housing demand levels out,” Wright said.

“These factors will set the stage for a period of relative stability in affordability trends in Canada.”

 

24 Nov

Lender News

General

Posted by: Steven Brouwer

The Bank of Canada understands that targeting inflation is still its No 1 job, and that there are limits to its ability to keep borrowing costs on hold to buffer against economic shocks or trouble in the financial system, Governor Mark Carney said today.

 

In his first remarks on his approach to inflation-control since the Harper government renewed his mandate on November 8th, Carney defended his “flexible” approach, which has seen him keep interest rates at 1% since September 2010, amid price gains that have exceeded his 2% target for much of the past year. Plus, he reiterated that the 2007-09 crisis taught central bankers that in some exceptional cases, monetary policy may be needed to complement attempts by regulators and supervisors to keep the financial system stable.

 

In both cases, however, Carney came out swinging against so-called policy purists who have expressed concern that he’s moving the central bank too far away from its principal task.

 

“We make monetary policy in the real world, where shocks are a fact of life,” Carney said in a speech prepared for delivery to the Board of Trade of Metropolitan Montreal. “That is why the Bank responds with a flexible approach, taking decisions guided by considered analysis and informed judgment rather than mechanical rules.”

 

Click here for the full Globe and Mail article.

 

Nearly three-quarters (72%) of Canadians with a mortgage hope to be mortgage-free by the time they reach age 65, but one-third (33%) of older Canadians (those over the age of 55) have 16 or more years left on their mortgage term, according to the latest RBC Housing Snapshot poll.

 

“Canadians want to be mortgage-free as they approach retirement age and beyond, but the reality is that it takes prudent planning and the right advice to stay on track,” said Claude DeMone, Director of Strategy for Home Equity Financing, RBC. “Using flexible and accelerated payment options are an easy and pain-free way to help take years off your mortgage and save thousands of dollars in interest costs.”

 

Canadians overwhelmingly say that a low interest rate is the most important feature when choosing a mortgage (96%). Almost nine-in-10 Canadians also say that accelerated payment options (85%) and flexible payment options (88%) are important and desirable features.

 

Looking ahead, the majority of Canadians expect steady interest rates in the next six to 12 months. Almost one-in-five Canadians (18%) expect rates will rise less than 1%. Just over a quarter of respondents (26%) think interest rates will rise more than 1% in the same time period.

 

Click here for the RBC press release.

 

When it comes to buying a condo, what’s a better investment? Buying one that’s already built and is being resold, or buying on the hype of a new building that’s yet to be constructed?

 

Jana Masiewich considered both a resale and pre-construction condo before deciding that buying a condo prior to it being built presented a better opportunity for her to make money on her investment. The 29-year-old, who lives and works in downtown Toronto, was looking for a condo property that met her criteria, in particular one in an up-and-coming area of the city. But she also had to discuss with her advisers whether she had the cash to purchase a yet-to-be built condo now.

 

To land confidently on her decision she consulted with her financial planner, her realtor, and did her due diligence on the developer building the condo. Masiewich says she understands there is some risk in buying pre-construction, but if you do your research, and go with a credible builder, then you significantly reduce the chance of a bad investment.

 

Click here to read more from the Globe and Mail.

 

Canadians are eying cheap Florida real estate.

 

Joe Waddell got the best cross-border bargain of his life last year – a three-bedroom, 1,700-square-foot condo for just under $120,000 (US).

 

The Fort Myers property is just 15 minutes from southwest Florida’s gulf beaches, within an easy drive of Miami nightlife and, better yet, about two hours from Disney World.

 

But Waddell, 45, his wife and 11-year-old daughter won’t actually be using their sun-and-sand getaway for a few more years.

 

Instead, they are among the growing ranks of Canadian “endvestors” — investors who’ve been snapping up deeply discounted bargains south of the border with the intention of renting them out until they retire.

24 Nov

Debt crisis sweeps towards heart of Europe

General

Posted by: Steven Brouwer

BRUSSELS/MADRID (Reuters) – The euro zone’s debt crisis swept closer to the heart of Europe despite a clear-cut election victory in Spain for conservatives committed to austerity, adding to pressure on the European Central Bank to act more decisively.

 

Spain’s Socialists became the fifth government in the 17-nation currency area to be toppled by the sovereign debt crisis this year. Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Greece went before, while Slovakia’s cabinet lost a confidence vote last month and faces a general election in March.

 

An absolute parliamentary majority for Mariano Rajoy’s center-right Popular Party brought no respite on financial markets increasingly alarmed by the absence of an effective firewall to halt a meltdown on sovereign bond markets.

 

Rajoy kept investors, and Spaniards, guessing about his plans to tackle the crisis, saying the constitution will make him wait until just before December 25 to name an economy minister and explain how he will get five million people back to work.

 

The risk premiums on Spanish, Italian, French and Belgian government bonds rose as investors fled to safe-haven German Bunds, while European shares (.FTEU3) fell more than 3 percent after Moody’s warned that France’s credit rating faced new dangers.

 

“This crisis is hitting the core of the euro zone. We should have no illusions about this,” European Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said.

 

He defended the European Union executive’s advocacy of austerity policies blamed for choking off growth and jobs.

 

“One simply cannot build a growth strategy on accumulating more debt, when the capacity to service the current debt is questioned by the markets,” Rehn told a Brussels seminar. “One cannot force foreign creditors to lend more money, if they don’t have the confidence to do it.”

 

Greece’s new technocrat prime minister, Lucas Papademos, on his maiden trip to Brussels, won an assurance that euro zone finance ministers should be in a position to agree at their next meeting, next Monday, to disburse vital bailout funds to avert bankruptcy.

 

Papademos was expected to meet European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi on Tuesday evening in Frankfurt.

 

Borrowing costs for both Spain and Italy hit levels regarded as unsustainable last week before the European Central Bank stepped in temporarily to steady the market.

 

Two newspapers said the ECB’s governing council had imposed a weekly limit of 20 billion euros on purchases of euro zone government bonds, a figure analysts say prevents it wielding massive deterrent power in the markets. Germany’s central bank has led resistance to the bond-buying it sees as inflationary.

 

The latest weekly figures released on Monday showed the central bank bought nearly 8 billion euros in the week to last Wednesday, far below that reported limit in a week when Italian and French spreads hit euro era highs.

 

Critics say this reluctant, piecemeal approach is aggravating the situation rather than restoring confidence.

 

ECB governing council member Ewald Nowotny, regarded as a dove, told a conference in Vienna that the central bank could not simply start printing money but would have to discuss its next response to the crisis.

 

“What we certainly have to discuss is what is a role for the ECB in these difficult times, but this is also something we will discuss in Frankfurt at the appropriate time,” he said.

 

FRENCH RATING RISK

 

Ratings agency Moody’s said a recent rise in interest rates on French government debt and weaker economic growth prospects could be negative for France’s credit rating.

 

“Elevated borrowing costs persisting for an extended period would amplify the fiscal challenges the French government faces amid a deteriorating growth outlook, with negative credit implications,” Senior Credit Officer Alexander Kockerbeck said in Moody’s Weekly Credit Outlook dated November 21.

 

France’s government spokeswoman insisted on Monday that Paris would not impose a third package of budget savings, despite market pressure on its cost of credit.

 

Talk of a possible break-up of the 12-year-old single currency has grown among analysts, mostly outside the euro area, as EU paymaster Germany has rejected most of the widely-touted solutions to the debt crisis.

 

The chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, Jim O’Neill, said the crisis of European economic and monetary union (EMU) meant “big decisions have to be taken pretty quickly.”

 

“It’s not obvious to me that EMU could survive without Italy,” he told a Confederation of British Industry conference.

 

“It’s not obvious to me that Italy can survive with 6-7 percent bond yields, so something’s going to have give pretty quickly. Italian bond yields have got to come down pretty quickly or EMU will have some severe challenges.”

 

Dutch Finance Minister Jan Kees de Jager, one of Berlin’s closest allies, acknowledged that the euro zone could splinter.

 

Asked whether a break-up of the euro would cause an economic depression, he told BNR radio: “This could be a consequence from the euro zone falling apart, that is correct.”

 

The chief executive of Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE), Josef Ackermann, said Greece leaving the Eurozone would cause incalculable damage and make it less likely that Greece would pay its debts.

 

Spaniards gave the People’s Party a clear mandate for more austerity against a background of 21 percent unemployment and one of the highest budget shortfalls in the region.

 

“We will stop being part of the problem and will be part of the solution,” Rajoy said after the vote.

 

Nicolas Lopez, head of research at M&G Valores, said the government had to introduce convincing measures. “While these measures are being taken, the ECB will have to buy up bonds as it has been doing to maintain confidence,” he said.

 

(Additional reporting by Gilbert Kreijger in Amsterdam, Kirsten Donovan and Fiona Sheikh in London, Lefteris Papadimas in Athens, Crispian Balmer in Rome and Jan Strupczewski in Brussels; Writing by Paul Taylor; Editing by Mike Peacock)

24 Nov

World stocks down as growth warnings, new government in Spain underline risks to world economy

General

Posted by: Steven Brouwer

Related Content

  • Pedestrians are reflected on an electronic stock indicator of a securities firm in Tokyo Monday, Nov. 21, 2011. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index fell 0.1 percent to 8,365.04 in the morning session as Asian stock markets headed lower Monday as a change of government in debt-laden Spain and Singapore’s warning of a sharp growth slowdown underlined the challenges facing the world economy. (AP Photo/Shizuo Kambayashi)

By Pamela Sampson, The Associated Press

BANGKOK – World stock markets fell Monday as a change of government in debt-laden Spain and warnings from Asian officials of a sharp growth slowdown underlined the challenges facing the world economy.

Benchmark crude fell below $97 per barrel and the dollar strengthened against the euro but slipped against the yen.

European shares fell in early trading. Britain’s FTSE 100 slipped 1.2 per cent to 5,300.67. Germany’s DAX slumped 1.5 per cent to 5,715.68 and France’s CAC-40 slid 1.3 per cent to 2,956.66. Wall Street also appeared headed lower, with Dow Jones industrial futures falling 0.9 per cent at 11,659 and S&P 500 futures down 1.2 per cent at 1,199.80.

The Nikkei 225 index in Tokyo fell 0.3 per cent to end at 8,348.27, its lowest closing since March 2009, after Japan announced an unexpected trade deficit for October.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was 1.4 per cent lower at 18,225.85. South Korea’s Kospi dropped 1 per cent to 1,820.03. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.3 per cent to 4,163. Indexes in Singapore, Taiwan and Indonesia were also lower.

Mainland Chinese shares fell slightly, with the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index inching down less than 0.1 per cent to 2,415.13, its lowest close in almost one month. The Shenzhen Composite Index also was virtually unchanged at 1,031.50.

Market jitters were in evidence a day after Spain voted in a new government — the third time in as many weeks that Europe’s debt crisis has toppled an administration. Governments in financially troubled Greece and Italy have also fallen.

Spain dumped its ruling Socialist government Sunday for the conservative leadership of Mariano Rajoy, who inherits an economy wracked by debt and an unemployment nightmare — which at more than 21 per cent is the highest among the 17 nations that use the euro.

Rajoy also must lower Spain’s soaring borrowing costs with deficit-reducing measures while preventing an already moribund economy from heading into a double-dip recession.

Adding to pessimism, Chinese state media reported Vice Chairman Wang Qishan, who oversees trade and finance, predicting on the weekend that current global economic problems are likely to be long term.

Singapore on Monday warned that its economy will likely suffer a sharp slowdown next year as export demand from developed countries wanes. Because of its high reliance on trade, Singapore is often a bellwether for the rest of Asia.

Japan, meanwhile, said its exports fell for the first time in three months in October, eroded by a strong yen and a sputtering global economy.

“Japan has been in focus after swinging back to a trade deficit in October as its trade balance figures missed expectations this morning,” Stan Shamu of IG Markets in Melbourne said in a report. “The news has seen Japan’s exporters come under pressure.”

Mazda Motor Corp. lost 5.1 per cent, Honda Motor Corp. fell 2.2 per cent, and Panasonic Corp. lost 2 per cent. South Korea’s LG Chem Ltd., which makes batteries for electronic cars, lost 4.3 per cent.

Stocks that are heavily dependent on exports to the West have come under pressure recently, said Linus Yip of Hong Kong-based First Shanghai Securities. Hong Kong clothing retailer Esprit Holdings slipped 4.8 per cent. China Merchant Holdings, a major port operator, fell 2.1 per cent.

“The market right now is still worried about future economic growth, the European debt problem,” Yip said.

Energy and resource shares were hit hard by the uncertain outlook for the global economy. Hong Kong-listed China National Offshore Oil Corp., known as CNOOC, fell 3 per cent. China Coal Energy was down 4.9 per cent while Energy Resources of Australia lost 3 per cent. Japanese energy explorer Inpex Corp. fell 2.6 per cent.

Mainland Chinese shares in textiles and railway infrastructure companies led the gains while shares in coal miners and environmental protection companies weakened.

“Earlier forecasts on credit easing haven’t actually come true and the situation in Europe is also affecting sentiment here,” said Li Jianfeng, an analyst at Caida Securities, based in Shanghai.

Jinxi Axle Co. gained 5.7 per cent while China South Locomotive & Rolling Stock gained 2.1 per cent after reports citing an expert said a bullet train crash in July was largely due to management problems rather than technical issues.

Gains were muted on Wall Street on Friday. While the Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators rose more than Wall Street analysts were expecting — a sign that the economy may pick up in the coming months — many investors were cautious as a key Congressional committee remained deadlocked on ways to cut the U.S. budget deficit.

A bipartisan panel must agree on making at least $1.2 trillion in deficit cuts by Wednesday. If the committee fails and Congress takes no other action, automatic spending cuts will take effect beginning in 2013. Economists worry that a deadlocked Congress will erode business confidence and slow the already fragile U.S. economy.

The Dow Jones industrial average gained 0.2 per cent to close at 11,796.16. The Standard and Poor’s 500 lost less than 0.1 per cent to 1,215.65. The Nasdaq composite slid 0.6 per cent to 2,572.50.

Benchmark crude for December delivery was down $1 at $96.65 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Monday. The contract fell $1.41 to finish at $97.41 per barrel on the Nymex on Friday.

In currency trading, the euro fell to $1.3462 from $1.3518 late Friday in New York. The dollar weakened to 76.79 yen from 76.97 yen.

 

16 Nov

New plastic $100 bills go into circulation

General

Posted by: Steven Brouwer

Canadians can get their hands on the country’s newest banknotes Monday — $100 bills made from a plastic polymer designed to last longer and thwart counterfeiters.

Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney will be on hand at an afternoon ceremony in Toronto to formally launch the bills.

First announced in June, the bills are a departure from the current cotton-and-paper bills in circulation because they feature the latest in anti-counterfeiting technology.

Counterfeiting became a major problem between 2001 and 2004, when it peaked at 470 fake bills for every one million in circulation. Since then, officials have been able to use new technology to get that figure down to only about 35 fake bills for every one million in circulation today.

INTERACTIVE ‘Secure’ plastic banknote unveiled Zoom in and find out security features

To fight that, the new bills have two transparent windows built into them that make them difficult to forge but easy to verify. One extends from the top to the bottom of the bill and has holographic images. Another window is in the shape of a maple leaf.

There is also transparent text, a metallic portrait, raised ink and partially hidden numbers throughout.

16 Nov

Financial security elusive in retirement

General

Posted by: Steven Brouwer

Price of safety enormous in world of low interest rates

Retiring today with financial security is challenging. Courtesy of central banks, interest rates are at levels not seen since the Second World War. Then, ultra-low interest-rate policies abetted wartime funding needs. Today, central banks are promising a lengthy period of minuscule rates in a frantic effort to stave off the slumps and deflation that often follow on the heels of a credit crisis.

In this world of artificially low interest rates, the price of safety is enormous. Not only are nominal rates paltry, but net of inflation, Government of Canada bonds yield a negative real return. High-net-worth investors who hold bonds in non-registered accounts also face the bite of taxes.

A back-of-the-envelope calculation illustrates how devastating this combination is for wealthy retirees withdrawing funds from their portfolios. Start with $3-million. Assume a 2% nominal return less inflation of 2% and taxes of 1% and the portfolio will lose 1% a year in real terms. Now assume a 4% withdrawal rate based on the original capital value, and by the end of year one the real value of the portfolio is $2,850,000. If ultra-low rates drag on for the next three years, a possibility, the real value of the capital will fall to $2,545,850. A stunning erosion of more than 15% of capital in just three years.

It’s not just the wealthy who are caught in this squeeze. Every conservatively invested RRIF holder faces escalating taxable distributions that all but guarantee a spiral of ever-falling real wealth. In today’s artificial world, the price of safety for many retirees is the heightened risk of outliving their money.

Retirees facing serious capital depletion have hard choices – accept more investment risk in the pursuit of higher returns, cut spending or both. In my experience, many retirees don’t find these options very palatable and simply hope the issue goes away. Hope, however, is not a strategy. The prudent course of action is to develop both a diversified investment plan and a budget that reflects today’s harsh reality.

On an investment front, an appropriate exposure to equities is critical. Fortunately, unlike the state of affairs a decade ago when ludicrous stock valuations offered little in the way of future returns, stock valuations are reasonable today. Our firm recently forecast a long term, expected real return from global stocks of 6.3% a year – only modestly below the 6.6% annual real return of U.S. stocks since 1926.

Adding equity exposure is just one way of improving a portfolio’s expected return. Provincial government bonds yield more than Government of Canada bonds, as do investment-grade corporate bonds. Bear in mind, though, that this return premium is not a free lunch – these bonds do have greater credit risk and are more volatile. Alberta, for example, defaulted on its bonds in the 1930s. Canadian investment-grade corporate bonds lost more than 4% in September and October 2008 when the financial tsunami hit.

Preferred shares are another option. Currently yielding over 5%, most preferred shares pay eligible dividends that have a lower tax bite due to the dividend tax credit. Due to their higher yield and lower taxes, preferred shares offer a real-return opportunity to taxable investors. Investors need to keep their heads up on the risk front. Preferred shares, which have higher credit and liquidity risk than bonds, lost 16.9% in 2008. Still, this was about one-half the loss of common shares.

Investors can also diversify and seek higher returns through real estate investments. These include both mortgage investment corporations and real estate investment trusts. On the risk front, REITs lost nearly 50% in 2008 while the shares of publicly traded mortgage investment corporations dropped over 20%.

Every financial storm ends; higher interest rates will eventually return. Until then, however, retirees face some hard choices.

z Michael Nairne, CFP, RFP, CFA, is the president of Tacita Capital Inc., a private family office and investment-counselling firm in Toronto.

8 Nov

Flaherty to deliver economic update: deficit off-target

General

Posted by: Steven Brouwer

OTTAWA — Federal Finance Minister Jim Flaherty is expected to release his fall economic update on Tuesday in Calgary —and he’ll likely confirm the government won’t meet its 2014-15 target for eliminating the deficit.

The Conservative government, Bank of Canada and parliamentary budget officer have all downgraded their economic projections over the past few weeks, and Tuesday’s fall update will reflect the sluggish forecasts.

Flaherty is expected to deliver the refreshed fiscal outlook during a speech to the Calgary Chamber of Commerce, and it’s believed he’ll confirm the government won’t be able to meet its target for balancing the books.

The finance minister announced two weeks ago that, based on the average projections of 15 private-sector economists he regularly consults, the government was trimming the country’s economic forecast for the next few years.

Flaherty predicted Canada won’t sink back into recession unless it experiences a “dramatic shock” from the European debt crisis that continues to threaten the global economy.

But at the time, he hinted the government would not be able to balance the books by its target, and instead would look to eliminate the projected $32.3-billion deficit over the “medium term.”

Tuesday’s economic statement likely will update the government’s revenue and spending projections, including whether the forecast deficit for this year has changed.

The Tories are in the midst of an ongoing strategic operating review that is searching for $4 billion in annual cuts.

Flaherty has a number of tools at his disposal, including: slowing the spending cuts; developing a broader jobs plan such as opposition parties are demanding; or delaying planned corporate tax cuts.

Another option, which Postmedia News has learned the government will take advantage of, is to increase employment insurance premium rates.

However, the increase will not be as much as some had anticipated.

The government is reducing the EI premium increase from a planned 10 cents for employees to five cents, and for employers it is cutting the increase from 14 cents to seven. Fifty per cent cuts in expected increases for next year.

The general corporate income tax rate is slated to fall to 15 per cent on Jan. 1, 2012 from the current 16.5 per cent.

Political observers and economists aren’t expecting dramatic changes from Flaherty’s economic update, and aren’t certain now is the time to make any bold moves.

“The level of uncertainty is just too high to leap dramatically in one direction or another. I think we’ll see a fair degree of caution,” predicted Roger Gibbins, president of the Canada West Foundation, a Calgary-based think-tank.

“The update will sort of signal caution going into the spring budget without committing the government to anything dramatic in terms of either cutbacks or stimulus.”

The government is wise to protract its timeline for balancing the books if the economic signs demand it, Gibbins added, saying now is not the time for the Conservatives to be dogmatic in their deficit fight.

“Sometimes promises deserve to be broken in light of changing circumstances,” he said.

The Conservative government now forecasts real GDP growth in Canada at 2.2 per cent in 2011— down significantly from the 2.9 per cent projected in March.

The economic outlook for 2012 is also noticeably weaker than initially forecast, with real growth in gross domestic product now expected at 2.1 per cent next year, compared to 2.8 per cent projected in March.

The level of economic growth in 2013 also has been trimmed, down to 2.5 per cent from 2.7 per cent projected earlier this year.

“We need to maintain the fiscal track to get back to balanced budgets. So we intend to stay on course to get to a balanced budget in the medium term,” the minister said two weeks ago, upon delivering the updated GDP numbers.

The government has vowed to be “flexible and pragmatic” to maintain economic growth in Canada, but has continued to resist NDP calls for potentially billions of dollars in stimulus spending to spur job growth in Canada.

Last week, Canada’s parliamentary budget officer predicted slower economic growth and higher unemployment in Canada than the Harper government, saying the country’s books probably won’t be balanced until 2016-17 at the earliest.

The slower-than-expected growth is likely to increase unemployment to eight per cent in 2012 and 2013 (compared to 7.4 per cent this year), which translates into 100,000 more unemployed Canadians by next year, according to the parliamentary budget officer.

It will also generate smaller federal tax revenues and larger budget deficits — making it almost impossible for the government to meet its target of balancing the books by 2014-15, the report said.

Flaherty, however, disagreed with the assessment, saying last week, that Canada is well on its way to eliminating the deficit.

“We are on track, we are seeing modest growth in Canada this year. This is relatively good,” Flaherty said.

4 Nov

Canada’s growth tops forecasts

General

Posted by: Steven Brouwer

OTTAWA — Canada’s economy gained momentum for the third straight month in August as output in the energy sector expanded at the fastest clip in eight months, confirming expectations of solid third-quarter growth.

Gross domestic product climbed 0.3% from the previous month as oil and gas extraction surged, Statistics Canada said on Monday, beating market expectations of 0.2% growth. Year-on-year growth was 2.4%.

Statscan’s revised data showed monthly GDP grew 0.4% in July. On a quarterly basis, GDP shrank 0.4%, annualized, in the second quarter but the central bank and private sector economists predict a rebound in the third-quarter with about 2% growth.

Other contributors to growth in August were the finance and insurance sector, retail trade and construction. Sectors that shrank included manufacturing, wholesale trade, utilities and some tourism-related industries.

Both the Bank of Canada and the government sharply cut their growth forecasts last week for this year to about 2% from closer to 3% previously.

Statscan will release its quarterly GDP figures on Nov. 30. Quarterly data is expenditure-based while the monthly GDP data is based on industry output.

© Thomson Reuters 2011

http://business.financialpost.com/2011/10/31/canadas-growth-tops-forecasts/