11 Oct

Canada’s finance regulator sends ‘early warning’ to banks on lending

General

Posted by: Steven Brouwer

Rising consumer debt nationally has raised concern, and now Canada’s financial regulator is taking action by increasing scrutiny of residential mortgages held by banks, according to media reports.

Julie Dickson, superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI), said her office is “stepping in to increase the monitoring” of home loans and lines of credit secured by real estate.

TD Economics recently noted in an economic report that the household debt-to-income ratio had reached 147% in the second quarter of 2011. The report explained a ratio of 138% to 142% is considered “appropriate.”

But the trouble might only be starting. TD Economics warned the debt-to-income ratio would rise to 150% by the end of 2012, then 151% by 2013.

Moody’s Investors Service similarly said last week that household loans threaten the Canadian banking system.

Dickson said she is hoping to send an “early warning” to banks about the issue, also working with Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney and federal Finance Minister Jim Flaherty.

Analysts in a Globe and Mail story explained Dickson’s comments relate concerns that housing prices could decline in Canada and unemployment could increase, thus putting added pressure on borrowers.

11 Oct

Canada best for business: Forbes

General

Posted by: Steven Brouwer

Canada ranks as the top country among 134 major developed nations for business, according to the annual Best Countries for Business survey by influential business magazine Forbes.

The move from fourth in 2010 to top billing is based on a ranking of 11 different factors – including property rights, taxes, freedom of trade, money, corruption, innovation, investor protection and market performance. According to the survey, Canada is the only country to score in the top 20 consistently in 10 of those metrics.

“As an affluent, high-tech industrial society in the trillion-dollar class, Canada resembles the US in its market-oriented economic system, pattern of production and affluent living standards,” the report says.

Canada is lauded for avoiding the financial meltdown that has seen banks teetering perilously in the U.S. and Europe since 2008, for tax reform, mostly with the introduction of the Harmonized Sales Tax in Ontario and British Columbia, and for its ability to maintain a lower unemployment rate than its trading partners. In fact, in terms of overall tax burden, Canada ranked ninth in 2011, up from 23rd in 2010.

“During the run-up to every U.S. presidential election, countless Americans threaten to move to Canada if their preferred candidate does not emerge victorious,” declared Forbes. “Of course, few follow through with a move north. Maybe it is time to reconsider.”

While the U.S. is “paralyzed by fears of a double-dip recession and Europe struggles with sovereign debt issues,” Canada’s economy held its own, the report gushes. “Canada enjoys a substantial trade surplus with the US, which absorbs about three-fourths of Canadian exports each year.”

The unemployment rate of 7.3% in Canada compares favourably with the U.S. rate of over 9% and the eurozone unemployment rate of 10%.

Even economic expansion, projected at 2.4% but down from last year’s 3.1%, is heralded.

While many Canadians have a love-hate relationship with their banks, the folks at Forbes are unequivocal in their adoration. “Canada’s major banks, however, emerged from the financial crisis of 2008-09 among the strongest in the world, owing to the financial sector’s tradition of conservative lending practices and strong capitalization.”

The other countries rounding out the top 10 are New Zealand, Hong Kong, Ireland, Denmark, Singapore, Norway, the United Kingdom, and the U.S, at 10th spot, down from ninth in 2010. The culprit in 2011: the U.S. surpassed Japan as having the highest corporate tax rate among major developed countries.

Three African countries – Burundi, Zimbabwe and Chad – bring up the rear among the 134 nations ranked, all faring poorly mostly because of corruption and red tape.

© Copyright (c) National Post

Read more: http://www.ottawacitizen.com/business/fp/Canada+best+business+Forbes/5501273/story.html#ixzz1ZuMgbrCH

 

11 Oct

No rate hikes until 2013: BMO

General

Posted by: Steven Brouwer

BMO Capital Markets pushed its rate hikes forecast back to 2013 on Tuesday, citing continued serious economic risks both home and abroad.

The new forecast pushes the expected time frame for the Bank of Canada to raise its benchmark interest rates back from previous expectations of the second half of 2012.

As recently as this spring, economists had been speculating about a rate hike before the end of 2011, but the market turmoil of the past few months sparked by the eurozone debt crisis has changed all that.

“As global economic risks have escalated, casting commodity prices and the Canadian dollar much weaker, the Bank of Canada’s diminishing tightening bias has probably diminished further,” Michael Gregory, senior economist with BMO Capital Markets, said in a report.

Mr. Gregory noted that the market has now actually swung all the way into cut territory pricing in two 25-basis point rate cuts by April 2012. But with inflation slightly below target, a weak loonie and credit markets still functioning, movement in either direction is unlikely.

“The policy easing bar remains high. Short of signs of imminent recession, the bank should remain on hold,” he said.

Mr. Gregory also forecasts the loonie to tumble further, down to US93¢ before recovering to parity by 2013.

Read more: http://www.ottawacitizen.com/business/fp/rate+hikes+until+2013/5500200/story.html#ixzz1ZuLldhA5