Month: June 2010

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30 Jun

Risk and Reality

General

Posted by: Steven Brouwer

There is a lot to consider when deciding whether to go for a fixed or variable rate mortgage — not least, your tolerance of risk and your ability to sleep at night. Generally, fixed rate mortgages charge a higher rate and cost more, but payments are fixed for the term of the mortgage so you know what amount is coming off your principal. Variable rate deals, on the other hand, have generally cost less over the term of a mortgage but payments rise — and fall — with rate changes, so while your payment stays the same, the amount that goes toward the principle could vary.

In recent years, a number of lenders have begun offering mortgages that feature a fixed and variable combination.

“You would have multiple mortgage segments attached to the same home,” says Marcia Moffat, head, Home Equity Financing, RBC Royal Bank. You could set up a mortgage where, for example, you have “half your mortgage as a five-year fixed rate, a quarter of your mortgage as a two-year fixed rate, and you could take a variable rate mortgage for the other part.”

A number of brokers have seen increased interest in these umbrella products.

“Combination or hybrid mortgages are growing in demand,” says Rosa Bovino, a mortgage broker with Invis, “… mostly because people are unsure where the market is going. For those who are not comfortable locking in the full amount and want to play with the prime rate, there are some great variable rates out there where you’re … paying 1.9%, which is phenomenal.”

As well as being exposed to different interest rates, the amortization period for each segment can also be different.

“If you think of the other side of your balance sheet, with your investments, you would typicallydiversify– you wouldn’t take a single approach to all your assets,” says Ms. Moffat. “This is applying the same mindset to the credit side of the balance sheet.”

The hybrid mortgage has one other hidden asset, Ms. Bovino says. It can help households in which the mortgage holders have different risk tolerances.

“You do get couples, one is more conservative [and] the other one wants to gamble,” says Ms. Bovino. “That’s where you see a larger percentage of the clients taking on [hybrid mortgages].”

As with all mortgages, it pays to ask questions and read the fine print.

“There are a lot of nuances with those mortgages, and you have to be very careful with the lender you choose and the different … options and terms,” says Kim Gibbons, a broker with Mortgage Intelligence in Toronto. “I disclose up front what the risks are for those mortgages and when I do…for the most part, (clients) usually choose to go either fixed or variable. I am able to provide them with a better rate on either fixed or variable as opposed to the hybrid.”

Whether or not you pay a rate premium for a hybrid mortgage may depend on how it is structured.

“If they’re working with a mortgage broker, they’re going to get the wholesale rate so there is no upping any interest rate because you’re splitting your mortgage,” says Ms. Bovino. “Overall, by doing the combination mortgage you will probably pay less over the life of a mortgage … if a component of it is at the lower variable rate.”

Advisors also suggest thinking ahead to renewal time.

“When the mortgage comes up for renewal, there may be two portions of it that are up for renewal at different times,” says Ms. Gibbons. “This makes it very difficult to break the mortgage … you would have to pay penalties on the part that is not matured.”

While you cannot readily switch lenders mid-way through a hybrid mortgage, “the nice thing about them coming up at different times is that you’re not 100% exposed to any one particular rate environment. This is a way to hedge your bets,” says Ms. Moffat. “With a five-year and a two-year, you’ll be exposed to whatever the environment is in two years and the other in five years. It’s a bit of a laddering approach.”

29 Jun

How the HST impact will differ between Ontario and B.C.

General

Posted by: Steven Brouwer

TORONTO — The harmonized sales tax about to take effect in British Columbia and Ontario is proof of Benjamin Franklin’s assertion that “in this world nothing can be said to be certain, except death and taxes.”

Funerals are just one of many services and goods previously exempted from provincial sales taxes that will be subject to the HST starting Canada Day, as governments in both provinces switch the tax burden from corporations and to consumers.

However, exactly what’s going up in price and what’s not depends entirely on which province you live in.

The single sales tax, which combines the five per cent Goods and Services Tax with provincial Retail Sales Taxes, will be 12 per cent in B.C. and 13 per cent in Ontario.

Energy costs will be the biggie for most Ontario consumers, with an immediate jump in the cost of electricity, natural gas and home heating oil because of the HST.

Ontario motorists will be among the first to feel the pinch when they fill up at the pumps. Gasoline and diesel fuel, which had been exempt from the province’s eight per cent sales tax, will be subjected to the 13 per cent HST.

British Columbia is maintaining its exemption for the provincial sales tax portion of the HST on gas and diesel, and won’t apply the HST to electricity or home heating fuels. However, B.C. has a carbon tax on energy that will rise to 4.82 cents a litre on July 1.

The tax on alcohol is actually decreasing, but the prices won’t. The provincial taxes of 10 to 12 per cent will be lowered under the HST, but other fees and taxes will rise because of what the provinces say is their social responsibility to maintain minimum prices for liquor.

The HST will not apply to purchases of resale homes in either province, but will apply to new homes costing over $400,000 in Ontario and those over $525,000 in B.C. New home buyers in Ontario will receive rebates up to $24,000 to lessen the impact of the HST.

There are so many other differences to the way B.C. and Ontario are harmonizing sales taxes that retailers who operate in both provinces will need two rule sheets to figure out what’s taxed and what’s not.

Internet fees will now be subject to the HST in Ontario, but were already hit with both taxes in B.C.

British Columbia will apply the HST to cable television fees and local residential phones, both of which were already taxed with the GST and PST in Ontario.

Green fees at golf courses will be subjected to the HST in Ontario but not in British Columbia.

Ontario has exempted newspapers and prepared meals and drinks costing under $4 from the HST, but British Columbia did not.

B.C. will apply the HST to snack foods, catering services, over-the-counter medications and food-producing plants and trees.

Ontario will apply the HST to legal services but they will remain exempt in B.C.

B.C. will subject shoe repairs, tailoring, wedding planning services and veterinary bills to the HST while those services remain exempt in Ontario.

Taxes will go up in both provinces on services such as lawn care, snow removal, dry cleaning, hair cuts, massages, personal trainers, gym memberships and home service calls. Home renovations and real estate commissions will also rise because of the HST.

Home insurance was exempt from the GST so it will not be hit with the HST, but will still be subject to the provincial sales tax.

Other items previously exempt from the PST but now subject to the HST include hotel rooms, taxis, domestic air, rail and bus travel along with campsites and hunting and fishing licences.

Also rising will be the tax on magazine subscriptions, some theatre tickets, ski lift fees, rental fees for hockey rinks and banquet halls and lessons for everything from ballet to soccer. However, music lessons will remain exempt from the HST.

Music and videos downloaded as MP3 files will also be subject to the HST after previously being exempt from the provincial sales tax.

Cigarettes and other tobacco products — and nicotine replacement products — will also be subjected to the HST after being exempt from the provincial sales tax, as will vitamins.

There will be no HST on vital documents such as health cards and birth certificates or on driver’s licence and vehicle plate renewals, although personalized vanity plates will be subject to the HST in Ontario.

Used cars, which were previously exempt from the five per cent GST when sold privately, will now be subject to the 13 per cent HST in Ontario and a 12 per cent provincial sales tax in B.C.

Both provinces negotiated some exemptions from the HST with the federal government, which wanted the tax applied as widely and with as few exemptions as the GST.

Consumers will continue to pay only the five per cent GST on children’s clothing and footwear, children’s car and booster seats, diapers, books and feminine hygiene products.

The HST will not be charged on basic groceries, rent, condo fees, prescription drugs, some medical devices, child care, municipal public transit, most health and education services, tutoring, most financial services and legal aid.

However, even though condo fees are exempt from the HST, purchases by condominium corporations will be subject to the tax, so condo fees are expected to rise.

The price of going to the movies or a sporting event in Ontario is actually expected to drop with the introduction of the 13 per cent HST because those outings were hit with a 10 per cent PST plus the GST.

17 Jun

Home sales sputter in May

General

Posted by: Steven Brouwer

Buyers backed away from Canada’s housing market in May, driving sales lower in what is traditionally the busiest month of the year for the country’s real estate agents.

The housing market has been key to Canada’s economic recovery, as low  interest rates and pent-up demand drove buyers into the market after months of stagnation in 2008. But with interest rates likely heading higher in the second half of the year, many buyers who would have preferred to buy in the fall or early winter chose to buy sooner.

Tougher mortgage rules imposed by the federal government in mid-April also prompted buyers to act sooner, the Canadian Real Estate Association said. Meanwhile, tens of thousands of homeowners have seen the rampant demand and listed their houses for sale to take advantage of high prices.

Sales fell to 8.5 per cent to 40,393 units in May compared with April. Sales remain elevated by historical markers, but are 15 per lower than last fall’s peak.

Prices were essentially flat in May, gaining 0.5 per cent to an average national resale price of $346,881 – the highest on record.

3 Jun

Carney’s big call

General

Posted by: Steven Brouwer

  Ottawa — Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney has had a busy time of it since taking over as the country’s central banker 27 months ago, mostly tackling the financial crisis, mapping out the road to recovery and reassuring Canadians that at the end of the day the bank’s extraordinary policies would work.

The one thing he has yet to do during his term, however, is raise interest rates. That might be about to change on Tuesday. If he does pull the trigger – and that is what most analysts expect – it won’t be after grappling with competing forces that convey two starkly different messages about the economic outlook.  

“We are at point where it is a tug of war between structural issues that are facing the eurozone and a very strong economic cyclical backdrop,” says Stéfane Marion, chief economist at National Bank Financial.

 Weighing on the governor are the economic data, which call out for a rate hike – as much as 50 basis points, some reckon. The data have been consistently strong and surprising to the upside. Job creation is in full swing, with a record 109,000 workers added to payrolls in April; consumers are buying up goods at a healthy pace, tax credits or not; corporate profits are rebounding to pre-recession levels; and inflation is creeping closer to the central bank’s preferred 2% target. The sterling fundamentals prompted the central bank last month to ditch its conditional commitment to keep its policy rate at a record low 0.25% until July, leading traders to price in a nearly 100% chance of a rate hike on June 1.

 That was until sovereign debt worries exploded in Europe, once Greece formally asked for international help days after the last Bank of Canada rate decision. That sparked an across-the-board retreat in global equity markets, down 9.3% since the beginning of May, as traders sold stocks and poured into risk-averse U.S. treasuries and other government securities on fears that another credit crunch was at hand. Mr. Carney is likely aware of this better than most, given his capital markets background from Goldman Sachs.

 The most worrying sign on Mr. Carney’s radar screen might be the small but steady increases in the cost of borrowing among banks, a signal European lenders are finding it tough to access cash from their peers on concern over how much Greek, Portuguese and Spanish debt they hold.

 In the end, the consensus is Mr. Carney is leaning toward a rate hike – a modest one, though, of 25 basis points. The thinking is, an ounce of prevention now is worth a pound of cure later.

 “We can’t look at things in a vacuum, because there are so many other factors besides Europe’s issues” says Jonathan Basile, an economist with Credit Suisse in New York who closely watches Canadian markets. “The truth is the macroeconomic evidence is outweighing the financial risks right now.”

 The last time the Bank of Canada raised its benchmark rate was in July 2007, by 25 basis points to 4.5%. At the time, former governor David Dodge said the economy was operating above its production potential, and inflation was likely to stay above its 2% inflation target for longer than forecast.

 Little did Mr. Dodge know that the U.S. subprime crisis would morph into the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, roiling markets and economies around the world. This is why Europe’s recent fiscal woes have triggered a case of nerves, and might prompt Mr. Carney to rethink any rate move.

 “The Bank of Canada wants to raise rates, but it doesn’t have a crystal ball,” CIBC World Markets said in a note to clients. “It can’t be certain that the recent financial market downturn isn’t going to morph into something more severe that would make a rate hike look out of place.”

 There’s another school of thought, though, that suggests markets have overreacted to a regional problem. In this context, it is key to remember the Bank of Canada didn’t expect the eurozone to contribute much to global growth, envisaging only 1.2% expansion this year and 1.6% in 2011.

 “The European picture will calm down and people will realize it is not as dramatic as being played out,” says Carlos Leitao, chief economist at Laurentian Bank Securities.

 Yes, he acknowledges, the debt-ridden southern European economies have tough years ahead. But other countries, led by Germany and France, are going to capitalize on the lower euro and boost their exports to emerging economies and North America, which will help offset the drag from the so-called Club Med nations.

 Besides Europe, Mr. Carney has other factors to consider.

 Canada’s sovereign debt levels are indeed much better than the industrialized world, as our politicians like to remind us. But the amount of debt held by households, measured as a percentage of disposable income, stood at a historical high of 146% – of which 98% is mortgage related – at the end of 2009, rating agency DBRS estimates. That would put Canadian households ahead of the United States but behind Britain on this measure. A rate hike would signal it might be time to live more modestly and refrain from too much debt-financed consumption (which helped fuel those nasty asset bubbles that central banks may want to pay more attention to in the aftermath of the subprime debacle).

 Mr. Carney’s other challenge is to explain why, and what’s ahead. He has come off a period where he provided extraordinary guidance to markets. Don’t expect similar language from the governor.

 If anything, Mr. Marion warns the central bank should refrain from using the type of guidance the U.S. Federal Reserve deployed in 2004, when it signalled a period of “moderate” rate hikes were in the offing.

 In retrospect, the Fed’s use of the word moderate “encouraged more financial excesses,” leading to the subprime bust, Mr. Marion says. “Carney doesn’t have to be brusque about it. He has the luxury to start slowly, and leave his options open,” from pausing should Europe deteriorate to hiking aggressively, by 50 basis points, if conditions warrant.

 Mr. Carney reminded us recently that “nothing is pre-ordained” at the Bank of Canada. He’s likely to drive home that point on Tuesday, rate hike or not.
Read more: http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=3084621#ixzz0pVYuP0cD

3 Jun

Credit Score Secrets

General

Posted by: Steven Brouwer

Ever wonder how that magical number – The Credit Score – is computed? 

Whether you’re obsessing over your FICO score or your Beacon score, you’re likely shopping for credit. The FICO score was developed by Fair Isaac & Co., which began credit scoring in the late 1950s. The point of the score is consolidate your credit profile into a single number. The Beacon score is a brand name used by Equifax, the largest credit-reporting agency in Canada. While Fair, Isaac & Co. and the credit bureaus do not reveal how these scores are computed, whether you get a loan or not is a numbers game: The more points you score on your credit app, the better you do. 

There’s a reason you have to fill out so much information when you’re applying for credit. Everything counts. Your age, your address, and even your telephone number all have a role to play in whether or not you’ll get credit.

Young ‘uns and old folk are at a disadvantage since under 21 and over 65 likely means you aren’t working; no points for you. If you’re married, you’ll get a point for being “stable.” And while you might think that being divorced would work against you (all that spousal and child support), most creditors don’t give a whit.

No dependents? Zero points. You’re probably still gallivanting like a teenager since you haven’t yet “settled down.” One to three dependents? Score one point. You’re a solid citizen. More than three dependents? Score zero. Have you no self control! And don’t you know you that with all those mouths to feed you could get in debt over your head?

Your home address counts too. Live in a trailer park or with your parents? Bad risk, score zero points. You could skip town with nary a look over your shoulder. Rent an apartment? Give yourself one point. Own a home with a big fat mortgage and you’ll score major points since someone has already done some checking and you qualified for a mortgage. Own your home free and clear? Even better. You’ve proven you can pay off a sizable debt and now you have a pile of equity that the card company would love to help you spend.

Previous Residence? Zero to five years (some applications only go to three years), score zero points since you move around too much. No land-line: zero points. How the Dickens are they gonna find you when you fall behind in payments. Since they can’t use your cell phone to actually locate you physically, it doesn’t count.
Less then one year at your present employer earns you no points. Again, it’s a stability and earning continuity thing. The longer you’re on the job, the more likely you are to be bored out of your mind but you’ll score more points. And, not to overstate the obvious, the more you make the better.

The more willing you are to make your lender rich, the higher your score will be. Since the FICO score was originally designed to measure customer profitability, if you pay off your balance in full every month, you’re going to score lower than the guy who only makes the minimum payment and pays huge amounts of interest.

Scores range from 300 to 900 and if you manage to hit 750 or above you’ll qualify for the best rates and terms. Score 620 or lower and you’ll pay premium interest if you even qualify; 620 is the absolute minimum credit score for insured mortgages.

Your credit score can change quickly. Payment history accounts for about 35% of your credit score and just one negative report can drop your pristine score into the doldrums. Since scores are updated monthly, your bad behaviour won’t go unpunished for long.

The type of credit you have counts for about 10% of your score. And your current level of indebtedness accounts for about 30% so going too close to your credit limit is another way to deflate your score. One rule of thumb is to keep your balances below the 65% mark. So if you have a limit of $1,000, you won’t ever carry a balance that’s more than $650.

Having too much credit available can also hurt your ability to borrow since the more credit you have, the more trouble you can get yourself into. If you’ve got a walletful of cards, canceling credit you’re not using can be a good thing – for both you and your credit score – over the long haul. Careful though. If the card you’re eliminating is one with a long, positive history, you’ll eliminate what could be a very good record of your repayment when you cancel the card. You’d be better off cutting up the card so you aren’t tempted to use it, while you establish a track record (six months or more) before you actually cancel the account.

Credit shopping can also cost you points. Since about 10% of your credit score relates to the number and frequency of new credit enquiries, applying willy nilly for new credit will end up costing you.  However, it’s only when a lender checks your score that this registers on your score. Checking your own credit report/score is considered a “soft” inquiry and does not go against your score.

3 Jun

Carney plots cautious rate path

General

Posted by: Steven Brouwer

Jeremy Torobin Globe and Mail  

Mark Carney is taking a cautious approach to raising interest rates, weighing Canada’s powerful economic rebound against the uncertainty of an “increasingly uneven” recovery across the globe.

The Bank of Canada Governor became the first central banker in the Group of Seven to raise borrowing costs since the financial crisis and recession, increasing the benchmark overnight rate Tuesday by one-quarter of a percentage point to a still exceptionally low 0.5 per cent.

Policy makers will keep an eye on Europe’s troubles, and won’t move more aggressively than they see fit, the Bank of Canada suggested, even though the economy is rebounding rapidly and inflation will likely exceed its 2-per-cent target this year. Much like in 2008 when the U.S. financial crisis pulled Canada into recession, the country’s economic health depends in large part on policy makers in other countries successfully containing homemade problems.

“Interest rates are incredibly low, given the strength of the domestic economy, but the global story is where it’s at right now,” Eric Lascelles, chief economic strategist at TD Securities in Toronto, said in an interview. “The level of uncertainty suggests there’s not a lot of confidence in the forecasts.’’ The open-ended nature of the announcement sparked a fall in the Canadian dollar and yields on two-year government bonds as investors pulled back their bets on what they had expected might be a series of uninterrupted rate hikes going forward.

3 Jun

Outrunning the bear market

General

Posted by: Steven Brouwer

By Alexandra Twin, senior writer
Wednesday, June 2, 2010

Provided by CNN Money

After the Dow’s worst May in 70 years, the threat of the stock correction becoming a full-blown bear market has intensified.

But this isn’t new territory for long-term investors. They’ve faced this precipice 29 times since World War II, according to Standard & Poor’s chief investment strategist Sam Stovall.

In 17 cases, they’ve avoided seeing a correction (a decline of at least 10% off the highs) turn into a bear market (a decline of at least 20% off the highs).

In 12 cases, they weren’t so lucky. And in three of those 12 cases it became what Stovall calls a “mega meltdown,” or a decline of 40% or more. In fact, the 2008-2009 stock market bloodletting sent the S&P 500 crashing 57% from an all-time high to a 12-year low.

But as the correction vs. bear market debate continues, what seems to be critical, at least on the technical side, is that the selling not surpass 15%. Historically, if that happens, the correction will become a bear market.

So far this current correction has avoided that 15%. At its worst, the S&P 500 was down 12.3% off the highs. As of Tuesday’s close, the S&P 500 was down 12% from the highs.

But hovering below the 15% mark doesn’t mean the selling is over by any means.

“We don’t know if the market direction is going to be up or down, but we do know it’s going to be up and down day to day,” said Randy Frederick, director of trading and derivatives at Charles Schwab.

The increased volatility increases the likelihood of more selling, particularly with the market in a mode where it retreats on both big news and a lack of news.

The threat of the European debt crisis, the weaker euro, the BP oil spill, increased tensions between North and South Korea and signs that China’s booming economy is slowing all dragged on stocks in May. But there have been numerous days in which there was little relevant news, either on the positive or negative side, and stocks sold anyway. Tuesday’s market, for example.

So correction or bear? Here’s what to consider:

Correction: If the market is in correction mode, it will probably chop around for a few months, then move higher, according to Stovall.

Of the 17 times that the correction didn’t become a bear market, stocks lost an average of 14% over a four-month period. Typically it took stocks another four months to get back to breakeven, and another four months of gains before another correction or pullback kicked in.

A pullback is considered a decline of 5% to 9.99%. They happen frequently and like corrections, are part of normal market functioning. Stovall estimates there have been more than 50 since World War II.

There were only two times (1955 and 1997) that the market “corrected,” recovered and then turned lower right away. More often, the market gets back to breakeven and then gains an average of 10%.

Bear market: S&P research shows that when a correction becomes a bear market, it tends to stretch on for 14 months and yield a decline of 33%, on average. The recovery back to zero tends to take nearly two years.

Stocks currently appear to be in a “garden variety bear market,” pushing toward a decline of 20% to 30% as the mountain of problems becomes too much for investors, according to the editors of the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

Heightened investor worry: In what could be either a bad or good sign, depending on whether you’re a contrarian, investor sentiment took a turn for the worse last week, according to the latest survey from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII).

Bearish sentiment, or the expectation that stocks will fall over the next six months, jumped 17.2% to 50.9%, marking the highest level of pessimism in the survey since November 2009.

Also, AAII’s monthly survey showed investors pulled money out of stocks last month and reallocated it to bonds, cash or cash equivalents, reflecting global jitters and the fear of further stock erosion.

Investors held just 50.9% of their portfolios in stocks and stock funds in May, down 9.5% from April. That’s the smallest percentage in stocks since May 2009, shortly after the market bottomed. It’s also below the historical average of 60% http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/personal-finance/article/cnnmoney/outrunning-bear-market-20100602